The Premier League is finally back, and it'll be nonstop action from now, with no international break until March. As we enter the holiday season, this year's Premier League is lining up to be one full of surprises, and we have already gotten our fair share of miracles.
Manchester City, the perennial champion, has lost four games in a row for the first time since 2006. The team that kickstarted this poor run was no other than Tottenham, knocking City out of the Carabao Cup 2-1. Since then, City has lost 2-1 to Brighton and Bournemouth and got trashed by Sporting CP in the Champions League 4-1.
Don't let that fool you, Spurs are as inconsistent as ever, as they followed their win over the Citizens with an equally impressive 4-1 win over Aston Villa, a defeat to Galatasaray in the Europa League and gifted Ipswich their first Premier League win in 22 years, yikes.
Here is my Tottenham vs. Man City prediction and English Premier League odds for today's match that is lining up to be a straight classic.
Tottenham vs. Man City Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Tottenham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 2.5 -334o / +250u | +500 |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 2.5 -250o / 200u | -209 |
- Tottenham vs. Man City moneyline odds: Tottenham +500, Draw +390, Man City -200
- Tottenham vs. Man City over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -334, Under +250)
- Tottenham vs. Man City pick: Over 3.5 goals
I am backing Over 3.5 goals in the Man City vs. Tottenham match.
Tottenham Prediction
Tottenham is always a hard team to make predictions on. Spurs can go from 4-1 demolitions of West Ham and Aston Villa to losing to Crystal Palace and Ipswich. There are no doubts that when it clicks, Tottenham is a scary team, and the stats back it up.
Ange Postecoglou's tactics are built to score goals. High-intensity pressing, moving the ball quickly down the wings, and devastating counters are their trademark. This style of play has resulted in his side topping the goals-scored table with 23 while being second in expected goals (21.7 xG, only behind City…) So, if scoring goals isn't the issue, why is Tottenham losing to relegation fighters?
Defensive mistakes have plagued Tottenham, no matter who lines up at the back. While the team tries to win the ball back high, as seen by the fact Spurs have the most tackles in the attacking third, they fall in the rankings when looking at defensive third tackles. While this is partially due to having the ball most of the game (2nd in possession with 61.5%), the team struggles to defend when tracking back.
Tottenham's strength lies in getting the ball to its productive players in dangerous positions, especially Dejan Kulusevski. The Swede is currently leading the league in chances created, both overall and from open play, however, he only has two goals and two assists so far, while Heung-Min Son has struggled for consistency with injuries. Both scored during the international break and will look to carry on that form.
To further emphasize Spurs' inconsistency, here are some noteworthy stats: they have two wins and three losses in their last five games. Their away form isn't inconsistent, it's straight-up dreadful, with only two wins in their last eleven Premier League away matches (seven losses, two draws). There seems to be something happening when Tottenham plays City, however and the London side has truly become City's bogey team, even drawing 3-3 at the Etihad last season despite Spurs' squad being riddled with injuries, so anything can happen in this matchup.
Man City Prediction
Talking about injuries, these are the main reasons behind City's abysmal form. Key players such as Ruben Dias, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake have all missed games this season, but the most important absence of all is recent Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, who tore his ACL in September. While initially winning their first six of seven games without him, City have felt the impact of playing without their star defensive midfielder, who glued Guardiola's whole system together. A lot of these players I mentioned are currently listed as questionable, so they could make an appearance, albeit not at full fitness.
There has been a clear before and after for City following the injuries. Their midfield has been lackluster, with Kovacic filling in as the sole defensive midfielder, but lacks Rodri's physical presence, especially when defending. Thirty-four-year-old Ilkay Gundogan has been less than satisfactory, while Phil Foden has carried over his form from the Euros this summer, as he is yet to score in the league and only delivered one assist.
City allows 39.1% of their opponent's chances from the middle third of the field, which Tottenham will likely try to do through its much more physical midfield. The Citizens also have been conceding far more chances on the counter, allowing 0.91 shots per game from counters, which is almost 50% more than in any of the past 4 seasons.
City can score goals, at least, they could before the run of defeats. They still rank second for goals scored but have failed to score more than two goals in their last five games. There is a clear over-reliance on their talismanic striker, Erling Haaland, whose goalscoring form keeps breaking records as he has twelve goals in only eleven games. When he isn't scoring, however, no one has stepped up besides left-back Joško Gvardiol, who, with three goals, has scored the second most in the squad.
I do believe the situation will get better once players start coming back from their injuries, but it seems there are clear flaws in Pep Guardiola's system. The Spaniard just signed a one-year extension, showing his commitment to getting the side back on track amidst the poor run and off-the-field controversies surrounding Manchester City.
Four defeats in a row is already Guardiola's worst managerial run, and I am sure he was pulling his metaphorical hair during the international break trying to figure out who was available to him ahead of a season-defining clash against a team he has historically struggled to beat. Oh, and City play Liverpool next week, so they really cannot afford to lose points here if they want to remain in the title race.
Tottenham vs. Man City Prediction
Tottenham and City have a lot of similarities in terms of stats. They lead the league in goals scored, expected goals, and possession. They also struggle to defend in transition. While City tries to build from the back in Guardiola style, Tottenham relishes in catching its opponents on the counter. Their head-to-head records show an upset could be on the cards, with City only winning three of their last ten games against Spurs.
I can see Tottenham getting a result here. It also depends on who will be lining up to play for City, and I would advise checking the lineups ahead of making a pick. Micky Van de Ven will also miss this game for Tottenham, and he is their best defender. Both teams have had disappointing results before the international break and see this game as an opportunity to make a statement to the rest of the league that they are back.
I am betting over 3.5 goals at -116, along with Tottenham Win and Drawing at +150, depending on who lines up for City.
Tottenham vs. Man City Pick: Over 3.5 goals (-116 on Fanduel) and Tottenham Win or Draw (+150 on Fanduel)
