Tottenham vs Sporting Lisbon Betting Prediction, Picks: Buy Low on Sporting

Tottenham vs. Sporting Lisbon Odds

Of all eight Champions League groups, Group D is the most competitive from top to bottom, with two matches remaining in the group stage. All four teams are alive to not only advance from this group, but win it.

Spurs have a one-point lead over Sporting as the Portuguese side visits north London on Wednesday afternoon. Sporting Lisbon won its first two matches to take the early pole position in the group, but consecutive losses to Marseille have opened the door for pre-tournament favorites Spurs to reclaim top spot with seven points.

Spurs lost two consecutive matches in the Premier League to Manchester United and Newcastle, and some cracks are emerging in the results for Antonio Conte's side.

Given the injury situation at Spurs and the regression I continue to expect from them, I actually think the market remains too high on the Premier League side.

Regression Finally Hitting Spurs

Tottenham are playing without both Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison due to injury, and the attack isn’t nearly as effective at breaking down low defensive blocks without them. Both defender Cristian Romero and midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg didn't play at the weekend and were not spotted at training on Monday ahead of the match.

Even though Spurs had their best start in the league (by results) in decades, they’ve had concerning regression indicators in their shot difference numbers and ball retention for a while. They are finally paying for it with the last two losses.

In the first meeting between these two sides in Lisbon, Spurs played about even with Sporting, but they really struggled to create any clear scoring chances. Richarlison was actually Spurs’ most productive player in that match, with four shot attempts and 0.4 xG created. Lisbon had the same number of shots, slightly more expected goals and scored twice late to win the match 2-0.

Spurs have been dreadful at winning the ball off of opponents through pressing, where they are the second least effective team in pressure success rate. When opponents press them, Tottenham are the worst in the league at playing through that pressure without being dispossessed.

They defend the penalty area really well but can be prone to teams piling up shots on them. That's a dangerous game to play as a sizable favorite. Tottenham have allowed the third most shots in the Premier League this season and they've not been good at preventing opponents from progressing the ball into the penalty area.

It only takes one run or two to break them open, and former Tottenham youth striker Marcus Edwards might just be that player for Sporting.

Edwards Giving Sporting a Lift

Sporting have taken a clear step forward this season in their underlying numbers and two weird games with Marseille doesn't change that. They've been up and down in Portugal in terms of results, but the underlying numbers remain solid.

Edwards also looks to be in the midst of a breakout season for the Portuguese side. He didn't score against Spurs but was clearly their liveliest attacker in the match. A quick look at his FBref.com profile tells the story.

His ability to dribble, produce shots and receive in the penalty area can all cause problems for Spurs' defense. If Spurs will let Lisbon have the ball around the penalty area, they'll be at risk of Edwards beating a man and creating a big chance.

They showed in the first match at home against Spurs that they're able to hold their own against Tottenham's pressing attempts.

They've conceded just 1.03 xGA per match in Portugal these season, which is slightly worse than last season but the attack has taken a step forward at the same time.

Betting Analysis & Pick

If we exclude penalties, Tottenham have a +0.34 NPxG difference per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. Given that Hugo Lloris has also started to show signs of aging in goal, that leaves Spurs as a good but far from elite Premier League team. Even though they’re clearly better than Sporting, they’re not good enough to be laying more than a goal.

Sporting are a side that still played even with Spurs in the CL at home, outplayed Frankfurt on the road and have been solid defensively when playing with 11 men in this competition.

They had two really weird results against Marseille that were heavily influenced by goalkeeper errors and red cards. They’re a bit cheap here in the market because of those two losses, and I’m buying low on them here.

The Pick: Sporting Lisbon +1.25 (-120 or better)