Tottenham vs West Ham Odds
Tottenham Odds | -115 |
West Ham Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-116 / -104) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-134 / +106) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham just lost back to back games domestically and in Europe and now Spurs will be without breakout midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur for the remainder of the season. They'll welcome West Ham to North London for a London Derby on Sunday in the final Premier League match of the weekend.
Spurs have struggled to create consistent scoring chances from open play and they've also now conceded the most goals in the PL from open play. West Ham are trending upward with their draws against Newcastle and Chelsea in the last two weeks, and they're well set up to defend deep and prevent Spurs from getting out into transition in this match.
The Hammers are still in the mix for the relegation picture, but another result on Sunday away from home would be a major step in the direction toward safety.
Tottenham Facing Impending Spiral
If it feels seems like things are about to unravel for Antonio Conte’s Spurs, the underlying numbers suggest that is certainly possible. The attack and defense remain elite on set pieces at both ends of the pitch, but the open play numbers suggest Spurs are an average team in the PL. Now, they're dealing with a bunch of injuries and out-of-form players.
Spurs are without goalkeeper Hugo Lloris for an extended period of time. Bentancur and Yves Bissouma are out injured in the midfield, Dejan Kulusevski and Heung-min Son are out of form as the wide attackers, and it’s pretty much just a one-man Harry Kane show at times for Tottenham.
Spurs were extremely successful last season ceding possession, sitting a bit deeper and being one of the best transition teams in the world. It's how they tied Liverpool, beat Manchester City and crushed Arsenal in the second half of the season last year. Tottenham did beat City two weeks ago with a similar strategy, but they are rather mediocre this year in transition.
Tottenham have been asked to have more of the ball this season, and they’ve made a ton of mistakes building from the back and dealing with pressure. West Ham are going to follow this blueprint and not press them high too often. But when they do, no team has made more mistakes leading to opposition goals than Spurs this year.
West Ham in a Good Buy Low Spot
West Ham remains one of the best buy lows in the entire league after the poor finishing variance and luck they've had this season. They have now produced at least 1 xG in eight consecutive league matches, and that includes games against Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle.
The defense is one of the most well-built to slow down Spurs as well. They don't concede many shots at all from direct attacks. They do an excellent job of stopping crosses, which is the main way that Spurs look to attack the penalty area.
West Ham will give you all of the stale possession and final third passing as you want, but they're not going to give you space in the penalty area nor big scoring chances. This defense is top-six in both big scoring chances allowed and non-penalty xG conceded per match.
Michail Antonio's production at striker is still lacking this season, but Danny Ings is fit enough now to add some shots and potential goals off the bench. While Gianluca Scamacca remains out injured, Ings is quietly a solid addition to this attack.
Tottenham vs West Ham Pick
West Ham will have the better midfield talent and the more organized defense and goalkeeper combination on Sunday. It's true that Spurs have world class talent with Kane and Son at the top and they can win a match at any time.
But Tottenham are too reliant on Kane and not getting the auxiliary production from the midfielders, wing backs and even Son at the moment.
The main way Spurs will try to attack in this game is through set pieces. The defense for West Ham has only conceded one goal all season from set pieces, which is three better than every other defense in the Premier League. Tottenham are leaking goals and not producing nearly enough to warrant them being odds-on in this match, even at home.
I’ll take the Hammers to grab at least a point at -110 or better.
