Tottenham vs Wolves Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -167 |
| Wolves Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250o / +187u |
Tottenham looks to make it three wins in four matches when it hosts Wolves.
Tottenham got a last-gasp winner from Brennan Johnson to beat Brighton 2-1 its last time out. The win moved Tottenham back inside the top four for the time being as it looks to separate itself from the chasing pack. They lost the last time they faced Wolves, but will be much healthier this time around.
Wolves were beaten 2-0 by Brentford last time out to keep them in the bottom half of the table. Gary O'Neill's side is on the cusp of breaking into the top half of the table, which is an amazing accomplishment given the state of the club coming into the season. They've gotten here by being giant killers, picking off wins from the Premier League's elite, and have another great opportunity here Saturday.
Read on for my Tottenham vs Wolves prediction.
Tottenham
Tottenham matches have been complete chaos under Ange Postecoglou, and this matchup is one where its defense can be exploited.
If you look through some of Tottenham’s recent matches, one thing that pops off the page is how many chances it has allowed to opponents that are set up to play very direct. They allowed 2.6 xG to Everton, 1.6 xG to Brentford, 1.7 xG to Newcastle, 1.7 xG to Bournemouth and the list goes on and on.
The reason for that is how aggressive Tottenham is in its build up. Often times, its fullbacks Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie are tasked with pushing up to the half spaces in the final third to try and get five guys across the back line to create an overload. Porro and Udogie are both going to miss this match, however.
Tottenham is averaging 1.71 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and is the most efficient team at getting into the opponent's penalty box. They have been so overwhelming to opposing defenses that only Arsenal and Liverpool have more shots inside the penalty area than Tottenham this season.
However, there are some downsides to being that aggressive in possession, and good transition teams will punish you. Spurs are incredibly reliant on Micky van de Ven, specifically, and his pace to clean up any balls that get in behind Tottenham’s backline. He’s had a couple of good games, but having to deal with Hwang Hee-chan and Pedro Neto is a big ask.
Wolves
O’Neill is a tactical genius and has had his side set up to be very tactically adaptive to whatever the situation is. They are set up to be a team that is much better without having a large share of the ball. They typically are pretty passive in their low block, limiting central progression and then utilizing their pace on the break, which is how they’ve notched four wins against the big six this season.
Spurs have been struggling to defend on set pieces all season and teams have now picked up on something with Guglielmo Vicario on corners. Vicario is an incredible shot stopper, but he’s small physically compared to most Premier League keepers and has been pushed around lately. Everton created almost all of its 2.6 expected goals off set pieces against Tottenham, and for the season, Spurs are 14th in xG per set piece.
One of the staples of O’Neill-led teams is they are always good on set pieces. It was true with Bournemouth last year, and this season is no different, as Wolves is fourth in the Premier League in xG per set piece.
Matheus Cunha is most likely going to miss this match, which is a blow, but he is only at 0.38 xG per 90 minutes on the season. Hwang should be fit for this match, which is a big boost to Wolves considering he's scored 10 goals on the season.
Tottenham vs Wolves
Prediction
This match sets up pretty perfectly for Wolves to be incredibly dangerous on the counter. Tottenham is not going to have Udogie or Porro available, so it'll be interesting to see if Postecoglou continues to be as aggressive as he's been in possession. Given the way this season as gone, I don't see any reason why he would change now. That is going to leave van de Ven and Cristian Romero isolated with the talented Wolves attacking players.
The flip side is even though Wolves has been giant killers this season, its underlying defensive metrics have been pretty poor overall, ranking in the bottom half of the Premier League in almost every category. Given the amount of pressure Spurs puts on their opponents in possession, it's hard to see how they are going to limit Tottenham's chances.
Tottenham matches always are chaotic, so it’s a good spot to continue to back it. I have 3.5 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Over 3.5 goals at +116.
