Liverpool vs. Ajax Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -155 [BET NOW] |
| Ajax Odds | +390 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +320 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+108/-134) |
| Time | Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS All Access | fuboTV |
Odds updated as of Monday at 3 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Perhaps the biggest match on Tuesday's Champions League schedule takes place in northwest England when Liverpool hosts Ajax in a crucial Group D showdown at Anfield.
Both clubs are looking to gain control in what has become the de facto "Group of Death" in the European showcase. Liverpool is just two points clear of Ajax and Italian outfit Atalanta, which means plenty is at stake in this fixture.
The Reds can secure a spot in the knockout stage of the tournament with a win. On the other side, any kind of positive result for the Dutch powerhouse will further its chances of advancing in the competition.
That said, let's take a look at these sides and what could be in store.
Liverpool
The Reds had been on cruise control going into last week's matches, but their stunning 2-0 home loss to Atalanta tightened things up in the group.
Liverpool didn't look much better on the weekend, settling for a 1-1 draw against Brighton & Hove Albion in Premier League play.
Manager Jürgen Klopp is going to have to work his magic when it comes to putting together a lineup. Several marquee players are unavailable due to injury, including Virgil van Dijk, James Milner, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Thiago Alcantara, Nathaniel Phillips, Joe Gomez and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Fortunately for Liverpool, it needs just one win in its final two matches of the group stage to move on. It remains to be seen if that happens here for the Reds, who will have stars Mo Salah and Sadio Mané leading the line.
Looking at the statistical data, Liverpool has put up the best numbers of the quartet. The Reds currently sit on 7.3 expected goals and 4.5 expected goals against, resulting in a +2.8 xGDiff and +0.69 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Ajax
Things could not be going any better for the Eredivisie juggernaut, both domestically and internationally, at the moment.
The Sons of the Gods have won six consecutive matches across all competitions, including back-to-back wins against FC Midtjylland in group play. Those performances have put them on the cusp of getting out of this phase of the tournament.
Highlighting that run of form has been their efforts away from the friendly confines of Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam. Ajax is unbeaten in its last five road games, which include four victories. Those results alone have me believing the club can get something out of this fixture.
When comparing Ajax's data against Liverpool, the visiting side's advanced metrics are just a notch below its host in the standings. The Sons of the Gods have a respectable 6.8 expected goals and 4.9 expected goals against, yielding a +1.9 xGDiff and +0.46 xGDiff/90 minutes.
The bottom line is these combatants are awfully close in the stats, which further solidifies why this is such an evenly matched affair.
Betting Analysis & Picks
If both clubs were at full strength, it would be hard to not side with Liverpool in this situation due to its experience and ability to get things done when needed.
However, the Reds' fitness situation is a massive concern for me, particularly after watching them struggle against a Brighton outfit toiling just above the relegation zone in England's top flight. Combine that with Ajax's beautiful stretch of performances, and you have the makings of a tight affair.
That said, I am backing Ajax getting a goal at a fair price. The Sons of the Gods can scratch out a result, perhaps even pull off an upset that would turn the group upside down.
I will also play the total under the number as well. There have been less than three goals scored in seven of Liverpool's last eight Champions League matches, so I like my chances.
Picks: Ajax +1 (-130) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-134)
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