Two European soccer powers will take another step forward in Champions League action Tuesday, with a pair of crucial Round of 16 matches on the card.
Italian juggernaut Juventus hosts Portuguese powerhouse Porto in Turin and German stalwart Borussia Dortmund looks to close out La Liga standout Sevilla in these intriguing showdowns.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have targeted four plays entering these meetings, with the aggregate winners advancing to the quarterfinal round of the showcase.
Let's take a look at their detailed analysis and featured picks.
| MATCH | ANALYST | THE PICK |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus vs. Porto | BJ Cunningham | Total Under 2.5 Goals (+112) |
| Juve vs. Porto & Dortmund vs. Sevilla | Jeremy Pond | Parlay: Juve/Porto Under 3 & Dortmund/Sevilla Under 3 (+220) |
| Dortmund vs. Sevilla | Anthony Dabbundo | Total Under 3 Goals (-107) |
| Dortmund vs. Sevilla | Kieran Darcy | Dortmund ML (+125) |
Odds updated as of Monday evening via DraftKings.
BJ Cunningham: Juventus vs. Porto — Total Under 2.5 Goals (+112)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Juventus is going to have its hands full in this match for a couple reasons: (1) Porto's defense is incredibly difficult to breakdown; and, 2) it's likely going to park the bus in front of net and try for a 0-0 draw.
Porto's defense has been a fortress during Primeira Liga play, allowing only 0.89 expected goals per match. The reason for that is because of the fact it plays out of a 4-4-2 formation, which is one of the most defensive in soccer.
I expect Porto to bunker in front of the 18-yard box and not even try to go forward in attack. Why do I anticipate that scenario, you ask?
Well, because the Dragons did the exact same thing against Manchester City in the group stage when all they needed was a draw to advance to the knockout stage. They were able to secure a scoreless stalemate, but only created 0.04 xG for the match.
Juventus is starting to turn things around in Serie A play. The Black and Whites have won six of their last eight matches, including seven in a row at Allianz Stadium. Manager Andrea Pirlo switched Juventus to a 4-4-2 this season, which has been met with great results, as it's averaging 2.36 xGF and allowing just 0.97 xG per contest.
So, with both teams playing out of a 4-4-2, this is likely going to be a very defensive contest, especially with Porto hoping for no goals and Juventus only needing a 1-0 win since it scored that coveted away goal in the first leg.
Jeremy Pond: Parlay — Total Under 3 Goals in Both Matches (+220)
- Odds available at DraftKings
There isn't a whole lot more I can add to what my colleague, BJ, spelled out above when it comes to the Juventus-Porto tilt. I fully expect the Portuguese outfit to have eight or nine players behind the ball, with the hope of the match finishing in a scoreless stalemate.
Do I think that's going to work against such a high-powered side like Juventus? I do not. My gut tells me la Vecchia Segnora aka the Old Lady will breakthrough for at least one goal to book its spot in the quarterfinal round.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus rarely get shut out, scoring at least once in 32 of their 37 matches across all competitions. The Italian giant has scored a combined 10 goals in its last four Serie A affairs, including three goals against Spezia and Lazio in back-to-back triumphs.
As for Dortmund's showdown with Spanish outfit Sevilla, the combination of the German side potentially missing two of its stars and a foe that defines offensive lethargy has me forecasting a low-scoring affair.
Dortmund will be without Jadon Sancho and possibly wunderkind Erling Haaland, who left Saturday's thriller against Bayern Munich with a knock. With Sancho out and Haaland likely only available in a reserve role, that severely limits the Black and Yellow attack.
On the other side, you have a Sevilla team in the midst of a dramatic decline in form. Sevillistas Los Rojiblancos have lost four of their last matches across all competitions, including three in a row.
According to the xG data via FBref.com, Sevilla has finished with 0.7 xG, 0.1 xG and 0.9 xG in its last three La Liga fixtures. Suffice it to say, those stats don't scream "goal-scoring machine" when talking about the visitor.
That said, let's roll the dice with a parlay featuring under three goals in each match at ripe +220 odds.
Anthony Dabbundo: Dortmund vs. Sevilla — Total Under 3 Goals (-107)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla played a thrilling 3-2 first leg, forcing the visitors to secure a two-goal comeback against the Germans to advance.
The first leg was higher scoring because of two early goals, which came via a deflected Suso goal for Sevilla and a 25-yard wonder goal from Mahmoud Dahoud for Dortmund. That game featured just 2.3 combined xG, with all three big scoring chances being converted on top of the two low percentage goals.
Dortmund will be without Jadon Sancho, and Erling Haaland left Saturday's game against Bayern Munich with an injury. He’s likely to play, but might not be 100 percent fit.
The onus will be on Sevilla to create chances, but it's one of the slowest tempo and build-up teams in Europe. Sevillistas Los Rojiblancos aren't used to chasing goals, and the hosts will be focused on protecting their 1.5-goal lead due to their away goals in the opening fixture.
Dortmund knows its defensive liabilities this year, meaning it will probably keep more numbers behind the ball to create long periods of slow possession build-up for Sevilla that doesn’t lead to clear scoring chances.
I project 2.72 goals in this game, so I will go back under three goals as my top pick and hope great finishing and fluke goals don’t send this one over the total.
Kieran Darcy: Dortmund ML (+125) vs. Sevilla
- Odds available at DraftKings
Both Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla are coming off losses this past weekend, but the quality of their opponents was quite different. Dortmund suffered a 4-2 defeat against Bundesliga leader Bayern Munich, which came in a match it actually led 2-0 at one point.
Sevilla was handed a 2-1 setback at Elche, which is in 17th place in La Liga and rock-bottom of the league in terms of xG differential.
Dortmund won the first leg of this tied via 3-2 road victory, with Erling Haaland scoring twice. Haaland also scored both his team’s goals against Bayern Munich on Saturday, and is expected to play despite coming off in the 60th minute with an injury.
Sevilla entered the first leg off the back of nine consecutive wins in all competitions, but still lost at home. This time, they are coming off three consecutive defeats.
