Champions League action continues Tuesday, with eight matches taking place in the final round of group-stage contests in the European soccer competition.
Soccer analysts Avery Zimmerman, Anthony Dabbundo and Brett Pund deliver their best bets on the slate, with their picks coming in contests featuring RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City, Porto vs. Atlético Madrid and Ajax vs. Sporting.
Check out below how our handicappers are playing these confrontations and what kind of betting value they've found in these interesting matchups.
RB Leipzig vs. Man City
| RB Leipzig Odds | +260 |
| Man City Odds | -105 |
| Draw | +295 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+130 / -160) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here | |
Avery Zimmerman: Barring a Club Brugge win against Paris Saint-Germain, all the German side needs to do to secure qualification into the Europa League via the third position in the group is get a point at home against a Manchester City side with nothing to play for in this contest.
Leipzig will need to match the Belgian side's result against PSG, but it's unlikely that Brugge will be able to pull off the +800 upset. This should give Leipzig a bit of comfort that it won't have to enter this match guns blazing to try to find the necessary outcome.
While City maintains about a 1.5 expected-goals margin through its first five UCL games and Leipzig is just short of a positive 0.5 xG differential, this won't be a visiting side playing with the mentality that it has in the past.
I would be surprised if manager Pep Guardiola opted to go with a strong lineup, but that doesn't mean that Leipzig has an edge. City's roster is probably the deepest in the world. Plus, the Cityzens won't be short for quality in the absence of any traditional starters.
At a juiced +295, the draw provides the best opportunity for value.
Zimmerman's Pick: Draw (+295)
Porto vs. Atlético Madrid
| Porto Odds | +170 |
| Atlético Madrid Odds | +175 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here | |
Anthony Dabbundo: Porto has been consistently undervalued in the market its entire Champions League campaign, except for one game against Liverpool two weeks ago.
These teams grade out similarly based on exG and chances created, as well as in allowed/final-third entries. Outside of Porto's poor performance and result against Liverpool in the second match, they've been the clear second-best team in the group.
Porto dominated AC Milan in both legs and was unlucky to tie in the second meeting. They controlled the first leg against Atlêtico Madrid in the Spanish capital, winning both the xG battle and nearly taking the game if not for a very controversial, unlucky VAR decision that ruled out a late Porto goal.
FiveThirtyEight also power-rates these teams as very close to one another in the SPI club rankings. With these sides having similar resumés and performances, there's no reason it should be a true toss-up at home. Porto should be a bigger favorite than it currently is, and is the more likely side to take all three points from this contest.
Only Atlético Madrid's name is holding it up in the betting market here, and the famously good tournament team has been anything but in this competition for the last year plus in my opinion. A draw could leave both teams out, but if anyone wins this contest, it's more likely to be Porto.
Dabbundo's Pick: Porto — Draw No Bet (-115)
Ajax vs. Sporting
| Ajax Odds | -250 |
| Sporting Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+135 / -170) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Brett Pund: Ajax welcomes Sporting in a consolation match that should feature goals in the last round of games in the UCL group stage.
One key metric when I look at totals is combined xG in contests for teams, and that's what makes the total going over the alternative number of three goals jump off the page in this clash.
If you look at the last five matches across all competitions for Ajax, the combined xG in those games was 3.52, according to infogol. The same metric rises to 3.88 xG in the Dutch side’s UCL fixtures this season.
As for Sporting, the combined xG in its last five contests was 3.02, which also rises to 3.4 in its UCL games. The same bet would have cashed in four of five UCL matches for the Portuguese side, which includes the 5-1 loss to Ajax in the opener of the competition.
When you add in the fact both teams are essentially already qualified for the knockout round, I don’t see either team having much defensive intensity in what could play out like a preseason friendly.
This group has featured a lot of goals across the board, and I see that continuing in this showdown.
Pund's Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (-120)
