Euro 2024 continues today on Tuesday, June 25 with four fixtures, and I have picks for three games.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Tuesday's France vs Poland game and more.
Tuesday Euro 2024 Match Projections
France vs Poland, 12 p.m. ET
I have France at 63.4% to win over Poland, who are eliminated. However, Poland played both the Netherlands and Austria close, playing Austria to a 0.3 xG differential despite the scoreline.
Pick: Poland +1.5 (+102 via FanDuel)
Netherlands vs Austria, 12 p.m. ET
I have the Netherlands favored to win 50.2%, but the Dutch have underwhelmed, barely outperforming Poland in xG and suffering a -1.1 xG differential to an Mbappe-less France.
Meanwhile, the Austrians have almost identical xG differential to Netherlands in this tournament so far, against the same two opponents.
Both teams have allowed more xG than expected, so there's a potential for a high-scoring affair. Both teams may be happy with a draw, but getting out of the third place spot is huge to improve a round of 16 matchup.
Picks: 0.1u on all exact results: 3-2 (+2800), 2-3 (+4200), 3-3 (+7000), 4-2 (+7500), 2-4 (+13000), 4-3 (+17000), 3-4 (+21000) – all via FanDuel
Denmark vs Serbia, 3 p.m. ET
The most likely outcome is Denmark winning at 40.2%. However, Denmark are in a spot where a win or draw get them through, whereas Serbia almost certainly must win.
The worse defense, Serbia, will be under less pressure. Scoring could be kept down, so let's roll with the under.
