Manchester United vs. West Ham Odds
| Manchester United Odds | -167 |
| West Ham Odds | +415 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-186/+148) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds updated as of Monday evening and via DraftKings.
Manchester United and West Ham meet in the FA Cup Round 5 on Tuesday with a trip to the quarterfinals on the line.
The Red Devils blew two different leads against Everton over the weekend, ending in a 3-3 draw with Dominic Calvert-Lewin scoring at the death.
“DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN WITH THE LAST KICK OF THE GAME!!”
The Elation! 😍😁💙 pic.twitter.com/LaOHllYdyT
— TheMightyBlues (@MightyBluesYT) February 7, 2021
Manchester United got to the fifth round by beating Liverpool 3-2 a little more than two weeks ago. They also beat West Ham on the road earlier this season, so can they take care of business as big favorites on Tuesday?
West Ham was held to a 0-0 draw with Fulham over the weekend, but the Hammers have been in incredible form over their past seven matches, picking up five wins. However, West Ham has struggled versus the top teams in the Premier League, picking up only four points in six matches against teams ahead of them in the table. Can they break that trend on Tuesday against Manchester United?
Manchester United
Despite being in second place in the Premier League table, the Red Devils are a completely overrated squad. Yes, they beat a 10-man Southampton squad 9-0, but outside of that match Manchester United has struggled to overpower teams. If you exclude the Southampton match, their expected goal differential is only fifth best in the league.
Manchester United's offense is also not as good as advertised. It has taken advantage of set pieces, corners and penalties, as only 36 of its 49 goals have come from open play. In fact, the club is only averaging 1.39 xG per match from open play this season.
In their match against West Ham earlier this year, Manchester United walked away with a 3-1 victory. However, they were not the better side, as West Ham dominated the match and the expected goals battle (table via infogol.net)
As you can see, West Ham was able to five chances inside Manchester United's six-yard box. So, can the Hammers take advantage of those chance the second time around?
West Ham
West Ham is having a dream season at the moment, sitting in sixth place and on the verge of getting inside the top four. However, most of the Hammers have struggled versus teams ahead of them in the table. In six matches versus the top five, West Ham has a -2.22 xGD and are allowing 1.56 xG per match.
However, the Hammers' offense has been nothing short of spectacular this season, averaging 1.46 xG per match. Even though they had to offload striker Sebastian Haller to Ajax, their attack should still be potent, since he only accounted for three goals and no assists in 16 appearances. What will be interesting in this match is what formation David Moyes goes with.
West Ham's most common formation is a 4-2-3-1, which is the most common formation these days and it's been a success for them netting a +2.21 xGD. However, Moyes also likes to play out a 5-4-1, which an extremely defensive formation, but has been the most success for West Ham, netting a 4.91 xGD even though they've spent 500+ fewer minutes in it than the 4-2-3-1. The 5-4-1 may be a good idea to try and subdue Manchester United's potent attack.
Betting Analysis & Picks
The Hammers are absolutely capable of hanging with an overrated Manchester United squad. What will be interesting to see is what starting XI both teams go with. The English soccer calendar has been jam-packed for about a month straight, so I wouldn't be surprised if both managers rest a few guys. So it may be a good idea to wait until lineups come out before placing a bet on this match.
In any case, since I have Manchester United only projected at -116, I am going to back West Ham's spread of +1 at -127 odds (DraftKings).
Picks: West Ham +1 (-127)
