The biggest day in eight years is here for the USMNT as they take on Iran in a must-win game to advance to the knockout stages of the 2022 World Cup.
After the nil-nil draw with England, I gave an early preview of the game. As more games have been played, the model parameters have tweaked slightly. That means we'll re-evaluate what bets we want to make on USA vs. Iran in addition to the other three games on the day.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Overall for the World Cup, projection-based picks are up 7.77 units for a 25% ROI on the dot.
Let's dive into USA vs. Iran and more.
Tuesday World Cup Projections
All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise
Group A: Ecuador vs. Senegal (10 a.m. ET)
- Ecuador are 43.9% to win according to my simulations.
- Both teams' outperformed Netherlands in xG in their games.
- They were each lucky against Qatar in terms of the final scoreline compared to xG.
- Thus, there shouldn't be much bias here from bookmakers or the public.
- That makes me feel confident in trusting the model, so we'll back Ecuador.
- Senegal have 0.85 xG per game while Ecuador have only allowed 0.37 xG total.
- There's value on Ecuador to shut out Senegal.
- Best Bet: Ecuador to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+290 via FanDuel)
- Bet to: +275
Group A: Netherlands vs. Qatar (10 a.m. ET)
- Netherlands are 64.7% favorites to win according to my simulations.
- Netherlands have been lucky with 3 goals against 0.8 xG and one goal allowed against 2.6 xG allowed.
- On the flip side, Qatar have been unlucky with one goal scored on 1.2 xG and five allowed compared to 3.0 xG allowed.
- Qatar would love to get a result or end on a great showing for the home country.
- Netherlands don't need to run up the score, rather they just need to match Ecuador's result.
- Let's back the home team.
- Best Bet: Netherlands under 2.5 goals (-120 via DraftKings)
- Bet to: -125
Group B: Wales vs. England (2 p.m. ET)
- England are 64.4% favorites to win according to my simulations.
- Having already qualified in all but the most unlikely of scenarios, England may try some fresh legs.
- As I'm not showing a ton of value here, and with the added uncertainty of England's lineup, I'm going to pass on betting.
Group B: USA vs. Iran (2 p.m. ET)
- USA are 51.6% favorites to win according to my updated simulations.
- This is like USA vs. Algeria in 2010, but Iran doesn't need to score
- If there's a goal, USA are more likely to score first, forcing Iran to open up.
- That should play to the USA's advantage stylistically.
- If Iran score first, USA still have the quality to come back, although it won't be easy.
- Best Bets: Draw (+250 via BetRivers), USA -1.5 (+320 via DraftKings)
- Bet to: +245 and +295 respectively
