Tunisia vs. Australia Odds
| Tunisia Odds | +110 |
| Australia Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -163) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-106 / -125) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Tunisia look to potentially put themselves in a fantastic spot to get out of Group D when they take on Australia at the World Cup.
They were able to hold Denmark to a 0-0 draw, but they really weren't that impressive, especially offensively. They do now have an opportunity if they win this match and Denmark loses to France to be in pole position for second place in this group, as they would just need a result against the French.
Australia scored first against France in their first match, but they got their doors blown off after scoring that goal. France put four in the back of the net and you could make the argument that they should have scored more. This is an all-in spot for Australia, as they realistically need three points to have any shot at getting out of this group.
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Tunisia Grinding Along
The North African nation did get a result against Denmark, but the stats show that they were pretty throughly dominated.
Denmark 0 : 0 Tunisia
▪ xG: 1.48 – 0.99
▪ xThreat: 1.89 – 1.07
▪ Possession: 60.9% – 39.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 72.6% – 27.4%
▪ Def Line Height: 45.8 – 36.7#msbot_wcpic.twitter.com/cYav2dQoDg— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) November 22, 2022
As you can see, Tunisia played an incredibly deep low block with an average defensive line of 36.7 yards, and they got the field tilted on them at 72.6%.
This is a match where they will be asked to have more of the ball, but I am not so sure they will want to. I think they will be fine conceding possession to Australia.
What concerns me about Tunisia is their offense is severely lacking in terms of chance creation. They sat their best striker Wahbi Khazri against Denmark, so I would assume he would be in the lineup for this match. However, throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Africa Cup of Nations, Tunisia only averaged 1.44 xG per 90 minutes.
The Tunisian defense has also been running ridiculously well over the past two years. They have conceded just five goals in 16 matches off of 14.37 xG, so they are due to concede.
Australia Looking to Over-Perform in Key Spot
Australia got completely dominated by France in their first match conceding 4 xG, and they never looked competitive after scoring first.
This Australia team is one of the least talented teams in the field, but the gap between them and Tunisia is not as far as the odds are suggesting. Per transfermarkt.com, Australia's total squad value is $40.2 million, while Tunisia's is $63.7 million.
Australia are a team that is more successful when they are in possession rather than having to sit deep and defend. When in possession their formation almost becomes a 2-3-5, with the two attacking midfielders pushing up the pitch creating overloads between the opponent's defensive line.
The Aussie center backs, along with Aaron Mooy, are very capable at playing long balls up the pitch. If you’re facing Australia, you better be ready to win some aerial duals. Outside of that, Australia are very reliant on Mooy to dictate the tempo of the match and to progress the ball into the final third.
Tunisia vs. Australia Pick
The market has completely overreacted to Tunisia drawing with Denmark and Australia getting blown out by France. Guess what, Australia getting blown out by France was what was supposed to happen and Tunisia got dominated as well, but it didn't show in the final scoreline.
Before the tournament started, Tunisia were +190 and now they are down to +120 at most books. So, I like the value on Australia against the spread.
The Pick: Australia +0.5 (-145)
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