Tunisia vs. France Odds
| Tunisia Odds | +700 |
| France Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+105 / -143) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Tunisia and France meet in a Group D finale on Wednesday that proves the United States and Iran don't have a World Cup monopoly on geopolitical overtones.
In simpler terms, Tunisia was a colony of France through the 1950s, and they did not reach a World Cup on their own until the 1978 tournament. Tunisia have still never gone beyond the group stage, and after a disappointing defeat on the second matchday to Australia they now need a shock upset to prolong their World Cup stay.
France have absorbed a string of injuries heading into the tournament, but are already assured of advancing past the group stage. Even the value of trying to win the group on the final day is questionable, given the uncertainty of Argentina finishing atop Group C.
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Tunisia Won't Be Overwhelmed in Situation
After a promising start in a 0-0 draw against popular dark horse Denmark, Tunisia were done in by an opportunistic early header and some resolute Australian defending.
There were some similarities in Tunisia's loss to Japan's 1-0 loss to Costa Rica. Both teams excelled against more difficult opponents, in part because they could set themselves up in familiar defensive, disruptive tactics. They found it harder to exist in a game where they shouldered the attacking burden.
The difference, of course, is Japan got a victory in their opener against Germany while Tunisia earned only a draw, meaning only three points Wednesday will help they move on to the quarterfinals.
If Tunisia have any edge against the defending World Cup champions, it's a familiarity with the culture of French football. A chunk of Tunisia have current or former experience playing in Ligue 1. Former Sunderland striker Wahbi Khazri is one of several players on Tunisia's squad who was born in France.
France Comfortable Heading into Fixture
Les Bleus still have a long way to go to become the first team since Brazil in 1958 and 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups. But this is already France's best World Cup performance in their next tournament after reaching the final.
Impressive 4-1 wins over Australia and 2-1 over Denmark have sealed a place in the last 16. They failed to get there in 2002 or in 2010 after winning the 1998 tournament and finishing second in 2006.
That owes largely to the play of now-23-year-old Kylian Mbappe, who scored both goals in the latter win and has three for the tournament. It comes despite missing a trio of stars to injury: Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante in midfield, and Karim Benzema up top.
Perhaps only Brazil have looked more convincing than France through the first two matches, but as a result, it could be a less-than-full-strength squad that manager Diedier Deschamps fields on Wednesday.
After all, it's improbable that France fail to win the group no matter Wednesday's result. They'd have to lose to Tunisia while Australia defeat Denmark and make up a sizable goal difference.
Tunisia vs. France Pick
So far, Tunisia have created 1.8 xG while failing to score. France have allowed opponents only 1.1 xG while conceding twice.
The former is probably more likely to regress in this game, if only because far more is riding on this game for the Tunisians competitively and emotionally.
There's the fact they could still reach the next round with a victory, and the likelihood they could get to play France while Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and others key players take the day off.
France may be world champions, and even their second team probably has enough quality to pull out a victory. But this is unlikely to be a high point of the tournament for them in terms of quality of performance.
As such, the play here is on Tunisia to score one goal exactly at +150 odds and an implied 40% probability. That probably won't be enough to prolong their tournament, but it could give their exit a softer landing.
The Pick: Tunisia to score 1 goal exact (+150)
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