Turkey vs Georgia Odds
| Turkey Odds | -143 |
| Georgia Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -138 |
Turkey and Georgia open up their tournament with a crucial match in Group F.
Turkey are back at the Euros after losing all three of their matches at the previous Euros. They are bringing a much better and youthful squad to this tournament after a really impressive qualifying campaign. The question is, can they realize their potential and get all three points in a must win match.
Georgia are at the Euros for the first time in their country's history. They finished fourth in their qualifying group behind Spain, Scotland and Norway, but they got here by way for the qualification playoff beating both Luxembourg and Greece. They are the longest shot in the Euro field, so a result here in the first match would do wonders to their chances of qualifying for the knockout stage.
Let's dive into my Turkey vs Georgia preview.
Turkey
Turkey are in a transition mode with the next generation of talent making their first appearance at a major international tournament. While Turkey’s underlying numbers overall during qualifying leave a lot to be desired, they don’t actually tell the full story. They struggled early on in qualifying and it was so bad that they had to make a change at manager. They brought in Vincenzo Montella who has managed the likes of Fiorentina and AC Milan, but most recently Adana Demirspor in the Turkish Super Lig, ascending them up the table to a fourth place finish, which was the highest ever for the club.
He took over the job in October of 2023 and the performances instantly got better. In three qualifying matches under Montella, Turkey created 5.01 expected goals and even beat Germany 3-2 in a friendly in November of 2023.
Turkey are a really good in-possession side that is going to give a lot of teams in this tournament problems. Vincenzo Montella is a coach that likes quick, fluid passing in build up to create transition moments with their outstanding ball carriers and playmakers running at the opponent's back line. In this match, they are going to be forced to breakdown a 5-3-2 low block, which is something they’ve already faced in their 1-1 draw with Wales, where they created 1.46 expected goals.
Georgia
Georgia have two talented attackers up top in Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze, but outside of them it gets pretty bleak. The defense is really where the problems lie. They are a very passive team, even from goal kick situations they rarely press high and normally sit in their defensive shape, trying to deny space through the middle and forcing the ball out wide.
The problem is they really weren't that great during qualifying defending in that passive structure. They conceded 2.25 xG per 90 minutes, which is most of anyone in the Euro field. They don't have much talent in their midfield or across their backline and when they played Spain they really struggled defending in wide areas.
That's a big problem against Turkey, who had the 10th-most accurate crosses during qualifying and have playmakers out wide that can win 1 v 1 against the Georgian fullbacks to create a chance. They have the incredibly talented 19-year old Kenan Yıldız from Juventus who is a really effective attacker down the left hand side having the ability to not only beat defenders 1 v 1, but also cut inside and create shots on his own.
Turkey vs Georgia
Prediction
Georgia are a bottom-three team in this Euro field. They had the worst expected goal differential of anyone in the Euro field, but they aren't the least talented team because of Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze and their outstanding goalkeeper Mamardashvili.
They are going to face three teams that are not only a clear step above them from both a talent and tactical perspective, but that will also force them out of their defensive block once behind, and that is big trouble.
For a team that allowed over two expected goals per 90 minutes in qualifying, they should not be getting this much market respect. I have Turkey projected at -196, so I love the value on them at -140.
