Turkey vs Portugal Preview | Euro 2024 Picks & Predictions

Saturday, June 22

12 p.m. ET

FOX

Turkey Odds	+450
Portugal Odds	-175
Draw	+320
Over / Under	2.5  -138 / +110

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Turkey and Portugal meet for a crucial match at the top of Group F.

Turkey sealed a 3-1 win over Georgia in their first match to claim the top spot in Group F. Vincenzo Montella has his team playing at an incredibly high level since he took over half way through qualifying. If they can win or get a draw from this match, they can guarantee themselves a spot in the knockout stage.

It took Portugal a long time, but they eventually found a way through to beat the Czech Republic, 2-1. Even though they dominated possession and lived in the final third, it wasn't the most impressive match tactically, which isn't surprising given who their manager is.

Here is my Turkey vs Portugal preview.

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Turkey

What Turkey showed in their first match is the technical capabilities they have all over the pitch. They are an incredibly good team in possession with ball carriers and playmakers all over the pitch. Arda Guler announced himself to the world with what is the goal of the tournament so far, but they have so much more talent beyond just him.

Turkey are not solely a build out of the back type of team. One of the ways they’ve been really dangerous under Montella is with long balls over the top. They have committed quite a few turnovers in their own half of the pitch, but during qualifying, especially when they played Croatia, they hurt them badly with long passes from goal kick situations or utilizing Hakan Çalhanoğlu as a deep lying playmaker to send a lot of those long passes up to the forwards.

Turkey may not have been the best team during qualifying, but if Portugal settle for sending in a bunch of crosses again, I can promise you they will be ready for it. During qualifying, Turkey allowed the third-lowest cross completion rate and had the experience of playing without the ball for a majority of the match when they beat Croatia 1-0 in qualifying.

Portugal

Yes, Portugal dominated a lot of the ball against the Czech Republic and ended up deserving the victory in the end, but there were a ton of tactical problems with Roberto Martinez’s set up.

First off, there were way too many players with similar traits playing in the same position. Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva were all playing centrally and then Joao Cancelo was inverting from left back, which caused a log jam in the middle of the pitch. So, what ended up happening, since the Czechs did such a good job denying space through the middle, is the ball went out wide and they ended up sending in a bunch of crosses.

Over 77% of Portugal’s attacks came from out wide and they ended up sending in 29 crosses to the box with only four of those crosses completed to a Portuguese player. It was an incredibly bizarre tactical plan that on a different night would have ended up costing them.

The other aspect of the performance was the starting XI that Roberto Martinez chose. Going with a midfield of Vitiniha and Bruno Fernandes means there is zero ball winning in the middle of the pitch. There were often times when they were in possession that a 41-year old Pepe was their only cover for a quick transition attack. Czech Republic were slow in their transitions from deep, which played into Portugal’s favor, but Turkey are going to be a much different opponent.

Turkey vs Portugal

Prediction

If Portugal decide to start the same starting XI in this match against Turkey, they are going to get torched. You simply cannot have four players in the middle of the pitch with no ball winning and a 41-year old Pepe as your only defensive cover for transition attacks.

Roberto Martinez has once again proven himself to be one of the least competent managers at simply giving his teams proper balance around the pitch. With that being said, there is too much talent in this Portuguese side and Turkey are not the best defensive team, as they were 21st in the Euro field in xGA per 90 minutes during qualifying.

I have 3.19 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over 2.5 at -136.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-136 via FanDuel)