Ukraine vs Belgium Odds, Ukraine – Belgium Picks
| Ukraine Odds | +425 |
| Belgium Odds | -154 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110o / -110u |
Belgium and Ukraine battle for the top spot in Group E in their final match of the group stage.
Ukraine rebounded after a horrible loss to Romania by coming from behind to beat Slovakia 2-1 to keep their hopes of getting to the knockout stage alive. Even with that win, they haven't been very impressive during this tournament and will most likely need to win here against Belgium to avoid finishing in last.
Belgium turned things around with an impressive 2-0 win over Romania to give them a real shot at winning this group. With Romania and Slovakia looking most likely to end in a tie, Belgium are now in a good position to not only win the group, but they set themselves up with a great path to get to the semifinals.
Here is my Belgium – Ukraine pick ahead of their fixture at the Stuttgart Arena. And for even more on the Euros, check out our Euro 2024 Match Projections, plus everything you need to know about Euros 2024 Bracket Scenarios for the Round of 16.
Ukraine Picks
Ukraine haven't really lived up to the amount of talent they have on their squad. There are a couple issues that they have.
First, they are trying to be a possession-dominant build out of the back style team, but they are constantly making mistakes in build up or are too slow at progressing through the first and second phases of build up to cause any real problems for the defense.
In the end against Slovakia they created 1.5 expected goals, but really Ukraine were not that threatening. Now, they are going to be in a situation where they are likely not going to have a majority of the ball and will have to play more direct. They were in that same type of scenario four times during qualifying against Italy and England. In those four matches, they created a combined 2.1 expected goals.
Ukraine also aren't a team that likes to press when they are out of possession. They are more comfortable sitting in a mid-block and looking to win the ball out of it, but given the scenario they don't have a choice but to play aggressively.
Belgium Picks
Under Domenico Tedesco, Belgium have been really impressive.
Through their first two matches against Slovakia and Romania, Belgium have created 3.4 expected goals and have looked really versatile in possession. Kevin De Bruyne was injured for most qualifying, but you can see how much of a difference he makes for them when they have the ball. Belgium lacked that creator in the middle of the pitch, but with De Bruyne they can now play two more defensive midfielders behind him as cover for transition attacks.
Belgium typically build out of the back in a 3-2-5 formation with Castagne inverting into the middle of the pitch alongside Onana, which allows De Bruyne and Carrasco to push forward to occupy the half space. Once they get the ball to the final third, it's usually to find Doku or Lukebakio out wide in a man on man situation against the opposing fullback to create a chance and find Lukaku in the box.
The issues that have existed for Belgium defensively more have to do with the fact with their build up. They are very prone to high turnovers, which leads to easy transition opportunities for their opponents. The good news is with Ukraine not being a good high pressing team, they shouldn't have to worry about that.
Ukraine vs Belgium
Prediction
There's not much value on either side or the total for me, but I do like someone to score, and that man is Romelu Lukaku.
Lukaku has put on a performance for the ages through his first two matches, having three goals VAR'd off and not scoring from 1.3 expected goals. He has taken eight shots so far, which is the second-most of anyone through the first two rounds of the group stage.
It is pretty clear that Belgium's objective is to get him the ball by any means necessary. He is the perfect striker to go up against any type of defense. He can pin defenders on his back, he's a great aerial threat against low blocks and he's great at making runs off the last line of the defense.
He is so overdue to score it's crazy at this point and really he shouldn't be plus money to score against a bottom end defense in this competition that has to play aggressively out of possession.
