Union Berlin vs Napoli Odds
| Union Berlin Odds | +280 |
| Napoli Odds | -106 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 /+105 |
Union Berlin will be hosting the Victor Osimhen led Napoli at the Olympiastadion Berlin in Germany this Tuesday.
They are looking to find any little sliver of form, having lost each of their last eight matches. They currently sit 15th in the Bundesliga with six losses, nearly equaling their total last season in the league. Berlin need to find some of the magic they had last year, when they finished fourth and had a great defensive record.
Napoli currently sit fourth in Serie A and have been one of the most threatening sides in the league, already accumulating 19.1 xG in the first nine matches. With the likes of Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia and Politano, Napoli are truly a tough side to stop.
With one side struggling and the other flying right now, let’s get into how I see this one playing out and what I will be playing for Union Berlin vs Napoli.
Union Berlin
Union Berlin have not found the same fortune that they did when they finished fourth in the Bundesliga just a season ago. Currently sitting 15th after losing eight straight matches, they are low on confidence and need to change something quick.
Union have played in a 5-4-1 formation and are happy to concede the majority of possession to their opponent. They play in an extremely low block, which is why their PPDA is at a very high 14.0. They do not press high and allow teams to build up around their 18-yard box until they can find a chance to break quick and counter. This can be effective against certain teams, but the good buildup teams find it much easier to create chances and rack up the xG total.
In Union Berlin’s defense, they have been slightly unlucky in their results when it comes to the stats. Their attacking numbers are right on par with where they should be because they lack the creativity to go far in the Champions League or compete in the Bundesliga, but defensively they have been above average. They have only conceded 11.8 xGA but 17 goals in their eight Bundesliga matches thus far.
Their goalkeeper Frederik Rønnow’s PsxG +/- this season is -2.5. In comparison, his +/- last season was a mind-blowing +8.2. This is a direct reason as to why they have not been the defensive juggernaut they were last season. The over-performance from last season has caught up with them now and their position in the table reflects that.
Napoli
Rudi Garcia has done a good job so far in his first season as Napoli manager after coming from Al-Nassr this past summer. They are currently fourth in Serie A and have scored the second most goals in the league.
After their title-winning season, it is only logical that Napoli fans will want a repeat as champions. Based on some of their underlying metrics, they could be in for another title race after all. They have scored 20 goals in the league on just over 19 xG so far but have already conceded 10 goals. This may not sound like top of the league metrics. but their xGA is only 7.6 so they are conceding at a rate that is due to regress at some point this season, which is very encouraging for this side.
They are arguably the best build up side in the Serie A 4.47 passes per sequence and 37 build up attacks. That is the same number of passes per sequence as Chelsea so far this year. They are also the best pressing side in Serie A with 10.6 PPDA.
The pressing statistics will most likely not be a huge factor in this one because they will be controlling possession for the majority of the match. But the fact is, is that Napoli have proved over the past two seasons that their build up play is elite and they will be able to break down the low blocks such as Union Berlin.
The only Serie A side that Union Berlin are comparable to is Udinese, who play in a five-back, low block type of system. Napoli ended up beating them 4-1 with an xG battle of 3.3-0.7. I expect an xG battle similar against Union Berlin, but the question is whether Napoli will have their finishing boots on that day.
Union Berlin vs Napoli
Prediction
It is obvious that Napoli will control the line share of possession and will rack up a pretty high xG against this Union Berlin side. What we do not know is whether they will be able to finish off enough of their chances to win this match in Berlin.
Based on the numbers and quality of players for both sides, I believe that Napoli will be able to find the back of the net in this one.
While I do see Napoli winning this match, I do not see enough value on their line to take them, but I do see value on Napoli over 1.5 goals. This Union Berlin side has finally regressed closer to the side that they instead of the overperforming side they were last year and against elite teams like Napoli they have just a slim chance of getting a result.
For these reasons, I will be taking Napoli over 1.5 goals and leaning Napoli moneyline.
