Uruguay vs Colombia Odds, Prediction
| Uruguay Odds | +195 |
| Colombia Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +175 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+162 / -200) |
| Day | Time | Wednesady | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings | |
Uruguay and Colombia meet for what is set to be a very entertaining Copa America semifinal.
Uruguay downed South American giant Brazil to get to the Copa America semifinals. Marcelo Bielsa's side won all three of their group stage matches and were really impressive in doing so. They will be a little short-handed for this match, but they will without a doubt be full of confidence.
Colombia routed Panama 5-0 in the quarterfinals and quite frankly have been impressive throughout the entire tournament. They outplayed Brazil in their final group stage match, so they will be coming to Charlotte with a lot of confidence.
Here is my Uruguay – Colombia prediction.
Uruguay Picks
Colombia have shown themselves to be a really dangerous transition team in this tournament. They’ve consistently gotten themselves into a positive game state and have used those transition moments to create a lot their high quality chances. Through four matches they have created 7.3 expected goals and scored a whopping 11 already.
Much like Uruguay, Colombia love to make the match very up and down because of their high pressing nature. Their pressing performance against Brazil was thoroughly impressive they way they denied them from playing through the middle and disrupted their build up to the point that all Brazil could do was send outlet balls up to their wingers who ended up doing nothing with it. In that match they had a PPDA of 7.2 and forced six high turnovers, two of which led to a shot. When they faced Uruguay in World Cup Qualifying they forced 15 high recoveries, which led to numerous chances in transition.
With that being said, one thing Uruguay proved in that World Cup Qualifying match is that a good transition team can cause Colombia problems. A lot of teams that Colombia have faced have tried to build out of the back and have tried to play through Colombia’s press. Uruguay consistently were playing long balls over the top of their high line with a lot of success on their way to taking 15 shots and creating 2.4 expected goals.
Colombia Picks
Marcelo Bielsa has set his team up so well throughout this entire tournament, but this is the first opponent that is going to play “chaos ball” with him. A lot of teams have tried to build out of the back against Uruguay and Uruguay haven't forced a lot of high recoveries. Bolivia are the only team they forced more than 10 high recoveries against and even in their previous meeting with Colombia they only forced six. Trying to turn teams over high isn’t the sole focus of Bielsa’s system, rather it’s to make sure teams aren’t able to build out of the back and force them into uncomfortable situations.
What has often been happening in this tournament is Uruguay will press out of their mid block and force their opponent into a long ball up the pitch, which plays right into what they want. Uruguay are elite at winning duels and second balls because they are allowing the lowest long ball completion in Copa America.
The problem for Uruguay in this match is they are likely going to be without their best defender Ronald Arajuo and one of their more experienced midfielders Nahitan Nández.
With Darwin Nunez up top, Uruguay pose a real threat to Colombia when they decide to press high. Colombia don't have the pace or strength to keep up with him or quite frankly a lot of Uruguay’s attackers. So far this tournament, playing the way Bielsa wants them to, Uruguay have created 6.8 expected goals in their four matches and they will have their chances in this match.
Uruguay vs Colombia
Prediction
We have reached the Copa America semifinals and naturally the market get suppressed for the total because of the stakes of the match, but given how these two teams play it shouldn’t be this low.
These two faced each other in World Cup Qualifying in October of 2023 and it was complete chaos. The match ended 2-2 with 4.1 expected goals between the two sides. Just because it's the semifinals doesn’t mean this match isn’t going to be any less chaotic.
All it is going to take is for the first goal to go in for this match to get completely off the rails and whoever goes behind will be going all out trying to get the equalizer.
Therefore, I think it is crazy that both teams to score is at plus money, so I like the value on the current line of +118.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (+118 via FanDuel)
