Uruguay vs Brazil Odds, Prediction
| Uruguay Odds | +195 |
| Brazil Odds | +165 |
| Draw | +205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -180) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 |
| Odds as of Friday morning via DraftKings | |
Uruguay and Brazil meet for a heavyweight clash with a spot in the semifinals of Copa America on the line.
Uruguay impressively won all three of their group stage matches in dominating fashion at Copa America, but their reward is Brazil. Marcelo Bielsa's side will not be afraid though, they beat Brazil in World Cup Qualifying and Uruguay have all the confidence in the world at the moment.
Brazil are somewhat in a state of peril right now. They failed to win their group over Colombia and quite frankly have not looked like the dominant team we expected them to be. They will be without their best attacking player Vinicius Jr for this match and a quarterfinal exit would a catastrophic failure for one of the pre-tournament favorites.
Here is my Uruguay vs Brazil prediction and Uruguay vs Brazil pick.
Uruguay Picks
Marcelo Bielsa's side is absolutely cooking right now. Their match against the United States was incredibly impressive given the circumstances. The Americans needed to win and Uruguay held them to four shots and just 0.4 xG. The reason they were so successful is because of their off-ball set up under Bielsea.
He always wants his teams to press their opponent from the opening whistle in hopes of either forcing a bunch of high turnovers that lead to easy transition opportunities or force them into a lot of long balls up the pitch, which they are really good at winning because they are only allowing a 42.8% long ball completion percentage, the best mark in Copa America. Their tremendous off-ball set up has translated to Uruguay allowing just one goals off of 1.2 expected goals.
The offense has been pretty reliant on those transition opportunities, which are not going to be easy to come by here against Brazil. In the 2-0 win over Brazil in World Cup Qualifying, Uruguay took a total of five shots, and their only two shots on target went in. For the match they only created 0.6 expected goals. Brazil have a lot of great ball winners in their side, so it's going to be very difficult for Uruguay to create high quality chances.
Brazil Picks
Brazil are in a really bad spot at the moment. There really doesn't seem to be much of a tactical plan other than trying to play direct, as the match against Colombia was really telling of what could happen here. Brazil kept trying to build up through the middle of the pitch and got absolutely nowhere, so what ended up happening was balls went out wide to the wingers without much support and Brazil ended up creating next to nothing in the match.
It's really puzzling given the talent that is on the pitch for Brazil at the moment, but taking only one shot inside the penalty area and creating 0.3 xG in a match that you have to win is unacceptable. Now, they are going to be without Vinicius Jr who could provide a real outlet in a match that is likely going to be very and forth.
Here is the worry for Brazil, they are set up to play more direct under Dorival Júnior as opposed to the possession dominant build up style under Fernando Diniz. If they get into a back and forth battle with Uruguay, they are going to have to be really clinical in front of net. Brazil didn't bring any true strikers to Copa America or at least ones that can win aerial duels, so if they are forced to play a lot of long balls up the pitch, Uruguay are going to win a large share of them.
Uruguay vs. Brazil
Prediction
Brazil are kind of stuck here with what they can do in possession. They were terrible trying to build out of the back against Colombia, which is a terrible sign because Uruguay play the exact same style out of possession, only better. In that 2-0 win over Brazil in World Cup Qualifying, when Brazil were strictly a build out of the back side, Uruguay held them to just three shots at 0.17 xG.
Since Brazil don't have any aerial threats or strikers to hold up play if they have to send the ball long over the top of Uruguay's press, they have no way to consistently playing direct.
With all of that being said, Brazil are still one of the best defensive teams in the world. Since September of 2021, they are only allowing 0.58 xG per 90 minutes, so Uruguay's chances will be limited.
I have both teams to score – no projected at -211, so I like the value on the current line of -115.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-115 via DraftKings)
