The international break is upon us, which means the US Men's National Team (USMNT) is playing and we've got you covered. This game will see the Stars and Stripes travel to Kingston to play Jamaica in the first leg of their CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal.
Both teams are coming off a very disappointing Copa América this summer that saw them exit the tournament after the group stage. The US Soccer Federation did some soul-searching and tried to address the team's issues by swapping managers. Out went Gregg Berhalter, and in came Mauricio Pochettino.
Here is my USA vs. Jamaica prediction for tonight's CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal match.
USA vs. Jamaica Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Jamaica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -145 | 2.5 +125/-175 | +275 |
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +100 | 2.5 +120/-175 | +105 |
- USA vs. Jamaica moneyline odds: USA +105, Draw +210, Jamaica +275
- USA vs. Jamaica over/under: 2.5 goals (over +120, under -175)
- USA vs. Jamaica pick: USA moneyline
I am backing USA Moneyline in the match vs. Jamaica.
USA Soccer
USA needs to make a statement. The team has been getting better and better for years, even getting praises as US Soccer's "golden generation", but a few wins against Mexico and Canada in the Nations League and Gold Cup hasn't translated to bigger achievements against better competitions. This summer, the USMNT got grouped and left a tournament on its own soil with nothing to show for it. This was supposed to be a preparation for what's coming in 2026 (the World Cup) and it showed how much work needs to be put in if the USA wants to make a real impact on the global stage.
Since the Copa América however, the USMNT has failed to satisfy, losing to Canada 2-1 in September, and 2-0 against Mexico last month. Pochettino was the coach for the latter game, but it is worth noting it was a friendly, and the new coach decided to let some of his star players, captain Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie sit out. Looking at these two recent performances for their clubs in Italy, Pochettino's decision seems to have paid off. Both players have established themselves this season as indispensable. Pulisic especially seems to have stepped up to another level, leading Milan almost single-handedly.
Pochettino now in his second training camp with the USA has had more time to develop a clear game plan and slowly instill his approach, based on high-intensity pressing, winning the ball high on the field, and creating chances as quickly as possible. The Argentinian will likely play in his favorite 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ricardo Pepi as the striker. Tim Weah has played great alongside McKennie for Juventus, but will miss the game due to a suspension, meaning the right-wing spot is up for grabs, and will probably fall to Yunus Musah who is very versatile. Brenden Aaronson is known for his non-stop running and Pochettino will rely on him to do just that.
Jamaica Soccer
The Reggae Boyz are an interesting bunch. They have some Premier League proven players on their roster, namely Michail Antonio up front and Leon Bailey on the wing. The latter has quit on the national team after disagreements with the Jamaican federation, but has agreed to come back since Steve McClaren took charge. Besides Bailey and Antonio, we can find Ethan Pinnock at the back. The defender is a stalwart for Brentford, but will likely not start after picking up a knock in his last game. Andre Blake has racked up 79 caps for his country and has been guarding the Philadelphia Union's goal since 2014. While he remains a great shot-stopper, Blake has not played a game since October 19th with the Union missing the MLS playoffs meaning there might be some rustiness in him.
The fall in quality is very apparent in this Jamaica side, especially in the midfield. In their last game, a 0-0 draw against Honduras, Jamaica possessed the ball 60.5% of the game, yet failed to register a single shot on goal. This shows an inaptitude to progress the ball in dangerous positions and a lack of creativity. Bailey did not play in this game and he is Jamaica's main chance creator, but if the USA manages to neutralize him, there is a clear lack of attacking threat from this Jamaican side.
Interestingly enough, looking at McClaren's first four games in charge, his side's two wins have come when Jamaica did not dominate possession. We can expect the USA to dominate possession and Jamaica to hit on the counter, as well as relying on set pieces. In their last three games, Jamaica has been outshot 49-20. While the USMNT isn't in its best form currently, Jamaica will be in trouble if it lets the Americans get that many more shot attempts.
USA vs. Jamaica Prediction
While the fact this game is being played in Jamaica might boost the morale of the local team, I don't see it as such a factor. With a new coach for the USMNT, players are aware spots are up for grabs as Pochettino tries to find his best possible eleven. The losses against Mexico and Canada are idnicative that a lot fo work needs to be done, but in a competitive setting such as this one, I am expecting the USA to try establish their dominance in a competition they have every time since its inception (2019, 2021, 2024.)
Pulisic and McKennie playing might be the difference maker, as long as the USMNT's defense manages to contain the speedster that is Leon Bailey. Goals are rare in CONCACAF games, so this will be a close one that I see the USA taking home, putting them in a comfortable position for the return leg on Monday 18th. At +105 , I really like those odds.
USA vs Jamaica Pick: USA Moneyline +105
