The U.S. Men's National Team looks to make it two wins out of two under new boss Mauricio Pochettino when they make a rare trip south of the border to face rivals Mexico in a friendly at Guadelajara’s Estadio Akron on Tuesday night, which I'll dive into with my USA vs Mexico prediction.
The USMNT earned a 2-0 home win over Panama on Saturday night in Austin on the strength of Yunus Musah’s first international goal and a late second from native Texan Ricardo Pepi.
Meanwhile, Mexico played an unorthodox friendly against Spanish club side Valencia in their first match of the window, earning a 2-2 draw in Puebla on goals from Alexis Vega and Ozziel Herrera.
The Americans are unbeaten in the last seven matches played between these sides, with Mexico’s last win coming in a friendly played in the U.S. in 2019. This is the first non-World Cup qualifier played between these sides in Mexico since a 1-0 U.S. win at the Estadio Azteca in 2012.
USA vs. Mexico Prediction, Odds, Picks
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -125 | 2.5 +124o / -174u | +280 |
| Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -105 | 2.5 +124o / -174u | -105 |
- USA vs. Mexico moneyline odds: USA +280, Mexico -105, Draw +210
- USA vs. Mexico over/under: 2.5 goals (over +124, under -174)
- USA vs. Mexico pick: Draw
I am backing the draw in Mexico vs. USA.
USA Preview
Despite the friendly occasion there will be considerable pressure on recently appointed Mexico managerial Javier Aguirre after a disappointing showing over the weekend.
Against a Valencia side struggling in La Liga and playing numerous players from its reserve side, Mexico failed to see off a victory after earning a 2-0 lead.
That follows a 0-0 draw in El Tri’s previous match against Canada played in North Texas to close the September window. And those unimpressive showings follow a disappointing group stage exit from the Copa America this summer under previous boss Jaime Lozano.
Aguirre called in 13 players in his initial October roster who were not a part of his September camp. And 19 of those 27 players selected play domestically in Mexico. That means the majority of the roster should be acclimated to the altitude for Tuesday’s contest, played about a mile above sea level in Guadalajara.
Mexico Preview
It will be a less-than-full-strength U.S. roster that makes the journey to Mexico with Pochettino, who is clearly focused on quality over quantity of minutes played in his first U.S. camp.
Christian Pulisic returned to AC Milan early after starting against Panama and providing the assist on Musah’s opener. Midfielder Weston McKennie also goes back to Italy having not even seen the field on account of minor injury, and Pepi returns to the Netherlands following a bright appearance as a substitute.
The latter could pave the way for a start for Brandon Vazquez, who was one of the few unused players in the game against Panama. Vazquez plays his club football in Liga MX with CF Monterrey, and while he has made only eight USMNT appearances he has scored four goals during those contests.
While the final result against Panama was satisfactory, the score perhaps flattered the Americans to a point of slight deception, in a game where goalkeeper Matt Turner had to make several key stops to keep a clean sheet.
USA vs Mexico Prediction
The exit of so much talent on the U.S. side combined with the continued instability on the Mexican side makes it hard to feel comfortable backing either outfit here at the current prices.
Fortunately, you don’t have to.
A price of +230 on the moneyline draw may feel expensive, but the 29.9% implied probability likely carries at least a little value based on both current context and recent history.
Each of the last three qualifiers played between these sides in Mexico have finished level, and so have five of the last 14 friendlies contested between these outfits across all venues. The frequency of draws in those friendlies also increases the more recent you get.
That this is a second game in four days for both sides also boosts the case for a draw, especially with both teams under new guidance and fielding some unfamiliar lineups. It likely won’t be easy to generate decisive attacking play for either group, especially as things progress at altitude.
For the same reasons, another angle to consider is a live under wager, especially if there is an early goal.
