The United States earned a 1-0 win over Iran thanks to a first-half goal by Christian Pulisic.
That means the Americans get to play Netherlands on Saturday with a spot in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals on the line.
What are the USA's chances of advancing? My World Cup simulations can give us an idea.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
So, how is the US going to fare against the Oranje? Let's find out.
USA vs. Netherlands Projections
The USA are projected to win 26.1% of the time in regulation, while 31.7% of the time the game heads to extra time.
If we add in extra time, the USA is projected to win 31.4% of the time while 18.8% of simulated games go to a penalty shootout.
Overall, the USA have a 40.8% chance to advance according to my simulations.
With all that information at our disposal, what are some best bets based off of these simulations?
USA vs. Netherlands Best Bets
Thanks to Netherlands' underperformance so far in the World Cup, their power ratings have come down quite a bit.
That means USA have a real shot to advance. Books are probably overrating the Oranje after they only managed 2.34 expected goals (xG) against a relatively soft group. Meanwhile, they allowed 2.74 xGA defensively.
If not for a penalty shot from the Welsh, the USA had a higher xG than all three of their opponents.
That means if books and the public are too results oriented, they could be overrating the Netherlands. and that's exactly what I'm seeing.
According to odds at bet365, there's value on the USA to win in regulation (+375). At FanDuel, the best value lies on the USA to advance (+196).
Because there should be plenty of betting on the Americans, I don't mind snapping either of these lines up now.
The expected ROI on both bets is in the 20-25% range, so pick either one you want.
And if you are betting at FanDuel, you can make either bet instantly just by clicking on the QuickSlip link below! It will fill out your bet slip automatically so all you have to do is log in, enter the amount of your wager and place your bet.
The Bet: USA to Advance (+196 via FanDuel, bet to +170)
Pick: USA to Advance |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Bet: USA ML (+375 via bet365, bet to +325)
Pick: USA 3-Way Moneyline |
