USA vs Saint Kitts and Nevis Odds
| USA Odds | -8000 |
| St. Kitts Odds | +5000 |
| Draw | +2200 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-163 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The United States men's national team makes a second bid for its first win of the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup on Wednesday night against Caribbean Cinderella side Saint Kitts and Nevis, who are competing in their first Gold Cup.
The Americans settled for a 1-1 draw against Jamaica in their opener, a result that shouldn't have been as surprising as it was to some. The Reggae Boyz marched out a squad that included five players who will be Premier League contributors this coming season, while the U.S. sent most of its top European-based stars home following their CONCACAF Nations League finals triumph.
Saint Kitts and Nevis fell 3-0 to Trinidad and Tobago a day later in their group opener, a result that betrayed a decent effort. According to data from FotMob, the Sugar Boyz allowed only one big scoring chance to the Soca Warriors.
This will be the first meeting between these sides.
USA Trying to Implement New Roster
With interim manager B.J. Callaghan still in charge, the same approach that led to success in the Nations League — get your best players on the field and keep it tactically simple — might have contributed to the slow start in this tournament.
The differences between the Nations League squad and this one are both quality and familiarity. That showed in the first half against a Jamaican team whose weakness is on the defensive side.
Eventually, the USMNT exerted enough pressure to force Jamaica's back line into an error, which led to a Brandon Vazquez goal. The FC Cincinnati target man may be in line for a start after that performance, especially given the reality that there may be far more opportunities to clean up loose balls in the box against the Sugar Boyz.
On the other end, center back Miles Robinson could return after missing the USMNT's past two games with a minor injury, though it's not a certainty. His presence would give some stability and experience to a group that turned to 19-year-old Jalen Neal in the second half against Jamaica.
Saint Kitts Face Uphill Battle
The Sugar Boyz had to slay two more experienced Gold Cup sides in Curacao and French Guiana in the preliminaries earlier this month, and required penalty kicks to advance past both. There isn't much in their recent itinerary to give a sense of what they may be capable of against one of the bigger regional powers.
The closest thing we have to go on is a 1-0 friendly defeat to Canada in 2018. However, Canada's big stars — Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David — were still teenagers at the time and the Canucks had yet to find the form or footing that eventually turned them into 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.
Against T&T, Saint Kitts predictably ceded the majority of possession, but nearly got to halftime with the score level before Alvin Jones' breakthrough. According to FootyStats.org, the difference in expected goals (xG) was far narrower than the outcome, 1.30 to 0.77 in favor of Trinidad and Tobago.
Cardiff attacking midfielder Romaine Sawyers is the most-recognizable name on this roster. Behind him, defensive midfielder Raheem Somersall has several seasons of experience in USL League One, the third-tier of the American pro game. Goalkeeper Julani Archibald is the club's captain and plays with CF Lorca Deportiva in one of the Spanish fifth-tier regional leagues.
USA vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis Pick
It's always strange to bet on a game where one team is so overwhelmingly favored and the other is relatively unknown. Markets are probably going to be limited until close to kickoff and it's probably good not to be too aggressive with how much you are putting down.
Although there is no history between these sides, there is a good deal between the U.S. and other Caribbean sides at the Gold Cup — and it skews toward lots of goals, particularly late goals.
When you add in that the Sugar Boyz will be playing a second game in just over 72 hours, and that while the Americans have some unfamiliarity with each other, they also have loads more depth, it probably makes sense to bet on the game opening up after halftime. There's also motivation for the USMNT to build up their goal differential after their draw against Jamaica.
So, my top play is on the second-half total to go over 2.5 goals at -150 odds and an implied 40.0% probability. It's not sexy, but history says it's likely.
Since 2013, USA has played seven group games against Caribbean opponents that finished third or fourth in the group, which Saint Kitts is very likely to do. The second-half total landed above 2.5 on all but one of those occasions.
If you want to be more aggressive, check out DraftKings' odds on U.S. players scoring multiple goals. At least one American scored multiple times in all six games where the previous trend applied. I might consider backing Vazquez (+200) to do so, since I believe he'll get the start.
Pick: 2nd Half Over 2.5 (-150 via PointsBet)
