Venezuela vs Mexico Preview | Venezuela – Mexico Picks & Predictions
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Julian Quinones.
Venezuela vs Mexico Odds, Venezuela – Mexico Picks
| Venezuela Odds | +240 |
| Mexico Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 9 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings | |
In the nightcap on Wednesday at Copa América, Mexico and Venezuela battle at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles for the top spot of Group B.
This Mexican squad found a way to get past Jamaica in the opener to position itself with a great opportunity to advance.
Meanwhile, Venezuela shocked the soccer world with the opening victory over Ecuador, which was aided by an early red card.
The goals have started to arrive at Copa América, but I don’t believe that happens here in this matchup.
Let's dive into Venezuela – Mexico.
Venezuela Picks
A 22nd-minute red card was the invitation Venezuela needed to take down Ecuador in the opening match. However, this has been a squad that has shown it can be difficult to beat.
In CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying, this was the same team that went on the road to get a result at Brazil before securing another draw at home against Ecuador.
This Venezuelan side also played Italy close in a recent friendly before giving up a late, backbreaking goal.
They have already cleared the first hurdle to get off to a solid start. Now, Venezuela have to find a way to advance out of the group.
Mexico Picks
Even in Mexico’s 1-0 victory over Jamaica, there was still a major negative for the squad as captain Edson Álvarez was forced off with a hamstring injury.
His replacement in that match, Luis Romo, did provide the assist for the winning goal, but Álvarez will be a big miss in the middle of the park.
Álvarez was also one of just seven players that Jaime Lozano selected for the tournament that plays domestically outside of Mexico.
After leaving out Guillermo Ochoa, Hirving “Chucky” Lozano and Raúl Jiménez, Lozano is under pressure to deliver positive results in this competition.
Venezuela vs Mexico
Prediction
Copa América has been a tournament for bettors who like to back unders, and I believe that continues here in this spot.
My best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 at -150, which I would play up to -160. If you have access to Asian totals, I also like the under 2.25 at a better price.
So far in Copa America, this same play would have cashed in 5-of-8 games. Yes, Venezuela were a part of one of the rare overs, but it was aided by Ecuador playing 70-plus minutes with 10 players.
Even with the advantage, Venezuela only created 1.0 expected goals from open play, according to fotmob.com. The struggles in attack fall in line with what the country did in WCQ.
In six CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying games involving Venezuela, this same total would have cashed in all but one. The lone loser came in a match where Chile picked up a red card.
Meanwhile, Mexico also haven't played many high-scoring competitive fixtures under Lozano. In seven of his 11 games in charge, which include the 2023 Gold Cup, 2023 Nations League and the opener against Jamaica, there have been less than three goals.
To sum up the level of low-quality chances, Mexico only registered 0.97 xG on 20 shots against the Jamaicans.
I could see Venezuela looking to nick a draw here after securing three points in the opener, and I don’t trust Mexico to score enough to get over this total.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-150)
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