Wales vs. England Odds
| Wales Odds | +750 |
| England Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+110 / -150) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
A battle between neighboring countries takes place in Group B on Tuesday when England take on Wales.
Wales' chances of getting to the round of 16 were effectively ended deep into stoppage time when they conceded two goals to Iran. It's pretty simple now for Wales, they need to win and they need some help. The United States and Iran match ends in a draw and they need to beat England.
England were held to a 0-0 draw with the United States and the question marks surrounding Gareth Southgate are starting to swirl again. The Three Lions just need a win or a draw combined with an Iran draw or loss and they will have won Group A. However, this is a match against their neighbors so emotions are going to be incredibly high.
Let's dive into the fixture.
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Wales Looking For True Miracle
The wind has been taken out of the Wales flag after the loss to Iran and now they have a massive hill to climb. However, this team was due to regress coming into the tournament considering they had a -1.34 xGD throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Euros. That was the worst mark of any of the European teams in the World Cup.
Wales do not have a good midfield whatsoever and they aren’t a team that is used to coming out and pressing high, which is what they have to do against England. When Wales has had to face good European competition, they have crumbled, as they have a -6.7 xGD against Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy and Switzerland.
Also, I have to mention that Danny Ward will be in net for Wales after Wayne Hennessey got a red card. Ward allowed two goals off of a 0.8 post shot xG & currently is at -3.3 for Leicester City.
So, this could get bad very quickly for Wales.
England Still a Top-Tier Side
What was the biggest difference between the Iran match and the USA match for England? The midfield. The United States were able to compete with them in the midfield, cutting off anything going through the middle and pressing them effectively when England crossed the halfway line. Iran did none of those things, which allowed England to pick out the passes they wanted and eventually led to the rout.
With Wales playing open having to press high and go for the win, that is going to leave a lot of space in behind for England's wealth of attackers to create chances. Additionally, if England score first, similarly to the Iran match, this one could get off the rails very easily.
You can listen to the negative English media all you want, but the reality is this is one of the best attacking sides in this tournament. Coming into the World Cup, England averaged 2.03 xG per 90 minutes throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Euros. They should be able to create a ton of chances against the worst European defense in this tournament.
Wales vs. England Pick
Game theory here is pretty simple. Wales have to go for it, which plays right into England’s hands.
England could play with the hand break on, and they could sit on this if they go up 1-0, but with Wales having no choice but to go full throttle, it’s going to leave too much space for England’s attackers.
Plus, having Danny Ward in net for a defense that conceded 8.88 xG at the Euros last summer and 2.3 to Iran and the United States does not look good when you are going up against one of the best attacking sides in the world.
I have 3.02 goals projected for this match so I like the value on the over.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)
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