Dortmund vs. Lazio Odds
| Dortmund Odds | -175 [BET NOW] |
| Lazio Odds | +420 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +340 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+138/-175) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS All Access | fuboTV |
Odds as of Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Teams coming off domestic defeats will meet at the Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday in a clash that will go a long way in deciding the Group F winner in the Champions League.
It appears likely Borussia Dortmund and Lazio will qualify for the knockout stage, but both will want to win the group and potentially avoid the giants of Europe in the Round of 16 in the competition.
Dortmund’s loss to Cologne and Lazio’s defeat against Udinese make this a get-right game for one of these teams. Let’s figure out which we should bet on it being.
Dortmund
Dortmund has registered more than 2.30 expected goals (xG), according to Understat, in each of its last four games. Creating chances has not been the issue for the Black and Yellows. It has been finishing them and taking control of games early on.
The main issue against Cologne was the visitor's ninth-minute opening goal. From there, Cologne sat back and was comfortable in soaking up Dortmund's attacking pressure.
This wasn’t the case in Dortmund’s previous Bundesliga game, though. It conceded first to Hertha Berlin, only to rattle off four consecutive goals, three of coming from Erling Haaland. The Dortmund star has been lethal for the club this season, leading an attack that is ripe with talent around him.
The issue for Dortmund has been its defense, which has conceded five goals over the past three domestic fixtures.
Lazio
Last season, Lazio finished in the top four in Serie A, thanks to some good fortune, which included an abnormal amount of goals from the penalty spot. This season, some of that has continued, but the Eagles aren’t creating sufficient chances from open play.
Lazio’s 11.22 non-penalty expected goals rank 12th in Italy's top flight. In nine league games, manager Simone Inzaghi's team is yet to register more than 2.00 xG. While the Eagles have scored eight goals in four UCL games, xG stats show they have had to be quite clinical to get that total with just 5.6 xG.
The loss to Udinese was the worst-case scenario for Lazio. It faced a team that creates a solid number of chances, which plays a relatively open style and could not match them.
In Lazio’s 3-1 win over Dortmund, the Serie A side was ruthless in front of goal again. It was a microcosm of the Germans’ struggles and the Italians' recent success. Dortmund had the xG edge, 1.9-1.4, but still suffered the defeat.
On Matchday 5, Lazio will surely be soaking up even more pressure and have less than the 36% of possession it had in that match.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The defeat to Cologne was a classic Dortmund letdown game against a lesser Bundesliga side right when things seemed to be going well. Given their consistent chance creation in every game they’ve played this season, I expect the Black and Yellows to take all three points.
I’m going to back the home side to bounce back in a big way. Dortmund at -1.5 sits at a nice price of+155, which I think holds value given how well it's created chances.
According to fbRef, Lazio has registered more than 1.5 xG in just four of its 13 games this season. That doesn’t translate well to facing a team like Dortmund, which has gone over 1.5 xG in every game this season.
Pick: Dortmund -1.5 (+155)
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