Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds, Picks, Predictions: Take Underdog to Get Result in Champions League Quarterfinal

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds

Liverpool looks to erase a 3-1 deficit at Anfield on Wednesday when its battle Spanish giant Real Madrid in a Champions League quarterfinal-round match.

Los Blancos walked away with a commanding 3-1 win after a dazzling performance by their young forward Vinicus Junior in the opening leg.

Real Madrid was so good defensively that it held Liverpool to no shots in the first half. The La Liga powerhouse picked on the Reds' fill-in center backs time and time again, playing almost everything through the middle of the pitch to force them to make plays.

Now, Liverpool needs to play ultra offensive to get back into this tie. Their front three of Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah, and Roberto Firmino need to step up and create more chances than they did in the first leg.

Fortunately for them, they'll have a good chance to do it to with Real Madrid's starting center backs — Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane — missing this match due to positive COVID-19 testing results.

Liverpool

The Reds finally got their first win on home soil in more than two months this past weekend, earning a 2-1 over Aston Villa via a Trent Alexander-Arnold rocket in stoppage time.

However, Jürgen Klopp's men have really struggled to create chances over the past few months, generating only 1.49 xG per match. That might be a good goal-scoring record for any other club, but not for the defending Premier League champions who averaged 1.98 xG per match last season.

Liverpool's major tactical problem was on full display in the first meeting. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives opponents fits. Liverpool's high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field, causing most foes to spend less time on the ball since they're forced to make quick passes.

However, due to Liverpool using reserve defenders, they can't go with that typical approach. The Reds tried it a few times and Real Madrid made them pay, with two goals coming via  long balls up the field.

Without their main three centerbacks available it's caused way too many problems for Liverpool. With the Reds having to play an all out attacking style to try and get back into the match, its going to leave their inexperienced center backs susceptible on the counter attack.

Real Madrid

Los Blancos have been on a great run in Spain's top flight ever since the calendar turned to 2021. They just beat their bitter rivals, Barcelona, by a 2-1 score over the weekend and have won 13 of their 18 matches across all competitions, putting up a +15.73 xGDiff in the process.

Manager Zinedine Zidane's 4-3-3 system has been completely overwhelming teams, as Los Blancos are scoring 1.84 xG per 90 minutes and only allowing 1.00 xG per 90 when playing out of that formation. Zidane used a mid-block in the midfield, repeatedly hitting Liverpool on the counterattack and taking advantage of the Reds inexperienced defenders.

All Real Madrid needs from this match is a draw, so I expect Zidane to set up very defensive and try to get after Liverpool repeatedly on the counter like it did in the first meeting.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Even though Real Madrid can afford to lose by a goal in this match, I still think it's undervalued. Tactically, Los Blancos are one of the best teams in the world and should be able to absorb Liverpool's attack and hit them on the counter.

Therefore, I am backing Real Madrid to get at least a draw from this match by backing their spread of +0.5 at -113 odds at DraftKings as my top selection.

Pick: Real Madrid +0.5 (-113)