Euro 2024 continues today on Wednesday, June 19 with three fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value. Today, I have bets on two games.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Tuesday's Germany vs Hungary game and more.
Wednesday Euro 2024 Match Projections
Croatia vs Albania, 9 a.m. ET
I have Croatia favored to win at 60.5% of the time. Despite creating 2.5 xG against Spain, they failed to score. That is a bit of a theme for them, as they fail to convert on their xG.
Meanwhile, Albania allowed just 1.6 xG to a far superior Italian offense. They may not be a major power, but I have them power rated above eight other teams on the defensive end in this event.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 via bet365)
Germany vs Hungary, 12 p.m. ET
Germany are rightly a heavy favorite to win this game. I have them at 81.1%. Germany's talent level combined with Hungary's middling defensive talent should lead the Germans to score on average around 11% more than the xG they create.
However, the hosts may take their foot off the gas late if they are up multiple goals knowing they're through and have a tough matchup ahead with Switzerland for top of the group.
I think the play is on Germany to cover the number rather than backing their scoring upside.
