Burnley vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Burnley Odds | +300 |
| Aston Villa Odds | -109 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-108/-115) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
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Clubs coming off victories, one of which was vastly bigger than the other, go at it Wednesday when Burnley hosts Aston Villa in a Premier League match.
That huge win I alluded to went straight into the Clarets' account following their 1-0 shutout shocker against defending league champion Liverpool. Ashley Barnes' penalty in the 83rd minute held up down the stretch, ending the Reds' 69-match unbeaten run at Anfield that spanned almost four years.
On the other side, the Villans took care of floundering Newcastle United via their 2-0 shutout win. The three-point effort snapped a two-game slide in England's top flight, vaulting them into eighth place on table.
These clubs met back in December at Villa Park, with a frustrated Aston Villa side dominating the affair in scoreless draw. The Villans held a massive 27-6 edge in shots that day, so they had to be disappointed with the outcome.
Let's take a look at these teams and see what might be on deck in this contest.
Burnley
You have to think manager Sean Dyche and the Clarets knew they were up against heading into the Liverpool fixture, perhaps thinking a draw and point would have been a solid way to leave Anfield.
Instead, they picked up a signature victory at north of +1400 odds on the moneyline and moved their way out of the relegation-zone chatter. Liverpool held a 2.4 xG — 1.4 xG edge over Burnley at game's end, yet it didn't matter as the visiting side moved into 15th place and seven points clear of the drop zone.
The Clarets, who cruised to a 3-0 rout over Fulham on Sunday in the fourth round of the FA Cup, have played five consecutive league matches that have ended with a 1-0 scoreline, so I would expect another tight affair in this tilt.
As for Burnley's advanced metrics, the club sits on 16.0 expected goals and 26.7 expected goals against, resulting in a subpar -10.7 xGDiff and -0.59 xGDiff/90 minutes. The Clarets are tied for last in goals scored (10) with Sheffield United, which sits at the bottom of the standings.
Aston Villa
The Villans continue to prove their top-half-of-the-table worthy after their convincing win against the fading Magpies. Aston Villa dominated Newcastle throughout, holding a 1.8 xG — 0.5 xG advantage at the final whistle.
Ollie Watkins opened the scoring in what proved to the game winner, giving the Villans their ninth win of the campaign against six losses and two draws.
Even though Aston Villa dropped two consecutive matches prior to its latest effort, the outfit held its own in defeats against Manchester City and Manchester United. Now, the Villans can focus their attention on making the climb into a potential Europa League position the second half of the campaign.
When comparing advanced metrics with Burnley, Aston Villa finds itself well ahead of its foe in all similar categories. The Villans have a solid 29.8 expected goals and 22.3 expected goals against, resulting in a stellar +7.5 xGDiff and +0.44 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
There is something in sports called a "bounce," which is exactly what I think happens with Burnley. The Clarets are coming off one of their biggest victories in year, which has me feeling some regression will happen in this spot after that herculean performance against Liverpool.
That said, I am backing Aston Villa to bag all three points at Turf Moor. The Villans know they have a chance to draw even with Everton and West Ham with a victory, so finding the motivation for this game won't be a concern.
I will sprinkle a little on the total staying under the number as well. Both clubs know how to bring it defensively, which should keep quality scoring chances at a minimum. Add in the fact that eight of Burnley's last nine league fixtures have finished with two goals or less, and you have feel confident in this play.
Pick: Aston Villa ML (-109) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
