Manchester United vs. Sheffield Odds
| Sheffield Odds | +700 |
| Man U Odds | -240 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100/-120) |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Sheffield United visits Old Trafford on Wednesday with a chance to jump Manchester United and move into fifth place — a spot that may be enough to qualify for Champions League football in the fall.
Sheffield is the true feel-good story of the 2019-20 Premier League season. Projected to finish near the bottom of the table as league newcomers, the Blades have rode sturdy defense, stellar goalkeeping and timely goals into the top eight, with a chance to make European football next year.
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However, there are reasons to suggest that Sheffield’s excellent form from before the layoff will not continue into June and July, and thus far, the Blades have struggled in 180 minutes of play since the restart.
The Blades opened with a goalless draw against lowly Aston Villa. Even though they clearly should’ve scored a goal after an officiating error, Sheffield was clearly outplayed for the majority of the match. Last weekend, a red card turned a goalless affair with Newcastle into a 3-0 Magpies’ rout.
Sheffield have scored 30 and conceded 28 all season, the fewest combined goals of any team in the league, and since the return, the Blades have generated 0.8 combined xG against two of the Premier League’s worst defenses. Now, they’ll match up with one of the PL’s best.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Manchester United needed a late penalty to draw with Spurs on Friday afternoon, but they largely stifled Tottenham’s attack except for a run and finish from Spurs’ Steven Bergwijn. As a team, United ranks fourth in expected goals allowed and fourth in actual goals allowed.
My only concern is on corners, where United have conceded eight goals and Sheffield have scored five (8.74 xGF) this season.
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United’s biggest problems in attack have come against teams who will sit deeper and look to counter them. Where United are one of the league’s most dangerous counter attacking teams, I’m not sure how many chances they’ll get against Sheffield to do this.
Only four teams pressure opponents on the ball less than Sheffield, who allow 12.78 passes per defensive action.
Against those four teams who pressure the ball even less than Sheffield, here are Manchester United’s results:
- 1-0 loss at Newcastle
- 4-1 win vs. Newcastle
- 1-1 at Wolves
- 0-0 vs. Wolves
- 2-0 loss at West Ham
- 1-0 loss at Bournemouth
United have a clear problem and inability to break teams down. This has improved with the addition of Bruno Fernandes and could progress further with the addition Paul Pogba on Wednesday, but I still have concerns about any attacking front three featuring Daniel James and Anthony Martial.
For that reason, I’ll expect the under trend in Premier League games since the restart to continue, and back under 2.5 goals. A flier on Sheffield on the moneyline (+750) is also worth a look, given the low-scoring nature of this matchup.
