West Ham vs Brighton Odds
| West Ham Odds | +145 |
| Brighton Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
The festive fixture period of the Premier League season comes to a close Tuesday as Brighton travels to London to take on West Ham at the London Stadium. The Hammers and Seagulls both picked up critical victories Thursday against Arsenal and Tottenham, respectively.
Just three points separate these two clubs at the halfway point, with West Ham winning three straight in the Premier League to vault itself into sixth place. Its underlying numbers suggest there's some real regression coming for its defense, and given the absences for West Ham in the attack, eighth-place Brighton should be a small favorite on the road here.
Here is my West Ham vs Brighton prediction and pick.
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West Ham
West Ham pulled off a stunning 2-0 upset of then-league leaders Arsenal on Thursday despite conceding 30 shots and 2.5 expected goals. The Hammers scored two of their only three shots on goal and should be commended for their continued set piece and counterattacking efficiency.
The problem in this match is the key absences in the transition plan. The attack is built on only sending a few players forward and relying on the individual creativity and finishing of Lucas Paquetá, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus. Kudus will not feature Thursday as he recovers from a knock and begins preparations for the African Cup of Nations. Paquetá picked up an injury and missed the Arsenal match. He's also ruled out. It's no surprise West Ham only attempted four total open play shots in the match without him at Arsenal.
Brighton is considerably more open than Arsenal and will allow some moments for West Ham to break, as it did in the first matchup between these two sides. Michail Antonio had the best games of his season on the break in that matchup, and he's also not quite yet ready to return based on reports.
The dropoff between the top three or four attackers to Saïd Benrahma and others should blunt the efficiency of West Ham. The Hammers rank 18th in box entries, 17th in final third entries and 16th in shots per match. The biggest clear edge for West Ham is on set pieces, where the Hammers rank third in the league in xG per set piece.
Brighton is 15th in defending set pieces this year, so that's the avenue for West Ham to level the playing field here.
Brighton
The Seagulls press and possess system completely took the Spurs out of their own game in the opening 30 minutes Thursday at home. Brighton attempted eight of the first nine shots, grabbed a two-goal lead early and then sat off a bit and cruised to an eventual 4-2 victory. Brighton welcomed back Pervis Estupiñán to the fold from injury, and he's a huge part of the Seagulls' ball progression going forward and transition defense.
The key loss for the Seagulls in defense is the absence of Lewis Dunk, who is suspended after a fifth yellow card in the match against the Spurs. Given the air prowess of the Hammers, it could be an issue for Brighton to defend dead ball situations. In open play, though, West Ham doesn't have the passing quality or the clear outlet choice to exploit Brighton on the break like they did in the last meeting.
Brighton has also done a much better job of improving its defense of late. Since November began, Brighton is actually conceding fewer xG per 90 minutes than West Ham is. The defense is fourth in build-up completion rate allowed, third in crosses allowed and sixth in shots allowed. There are some high xG per shot concerns, but again the issue for West Ham to keep pace is the lacking attackers available.
West Ham vs. Brighton
Prediction
If you were to go by just points collected in the last two months, you'd say that West Ham is in considerably better form than Brighton. However, the underlying results paint a different picture. Brighton has been marginally better in attack and marginally better in defense since November began. The Seagulls don't have much depth right now because of all the injuries, but the first XI should be more than capable of scoring goals and defending in transition.
I'd expect Danny Welbeck and João Pedro to start again, and there's more than enough shots between those two and Evan Ferguson on the bench to threaten a West Ham defense that is bottom five in every metric this season.
