Chelsea look for their first back-to-back league wins under new boss Enzo Maresca when they make the short journey to East London to face a West Ham side also adjusting to life under a new leader.
The Blues haven't lost in the league since their season opener at home to Manchester City. But they've also scored multiple goals in only one of those four league matches, a 6-2 thumping of Wolverhampton Wanderers.
West Ham have lost their first two home matches under Julien Lopetegui, but those came against defending champion Manchester City and last year's fourth-place finisher Aston Villa. They've taken points from their last two away matches, most recently earning a 1-1 draw at Fulham.
The home side has won five of the last six league meetings between these teams, including both fixtures last season.
Here is my West Ham vs. Chelsea prediction.
West Ham vs. Chelsea Odds, Picks, Prediction
| West Ham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -125 | 2.5 -185o / +145u | +240 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +105 | 2.5 -185o / +145u | +105 |
- West Ham vs. Chelsea moneyline odds: West Ham +240, Chelsea +105, Draw +280
- West Ham vs. Chelsea over/under: 2.5 goals (over -185, under +145)
- West Ham vs. Chelsa pick: West Ham or draw and under 4.5
I am backing a same game parlay of West Ham or draw and the under 4.5 in Chelsea vs. West Ham.
West Ham Preview
Once again, Cole Palmer has found himself at the root of most of the good Chelsea produce in attack, contributing a goal-involvement on five of the Blues' eight tallies so far.
Four of those are assists this time, and three of those — plus his lone goal — came in the Wolves route. And in the long term, Palmer could yet prove to be a player who sets up goals first and scores them second.
His 22-goal season last year came for a squad that lacked an in-form center forward, and it included nine tallies from the penalty spot.
Despite an uneven maiden EPL campaign last season, Nicolas Jackson is still being given the opportunity to prove he can become that established No. 9, having started all four matches. He has two goals and an assist and is the only Chelsea player to have scored in multiple league games.
Chelsea Preview
Lopetegui has already tinkered with formations in his short time in charge, playing the Hammers' first two matches out of a 4-1-4-1, then shifting to a 4-2-3-1 in the last two games.
The key variable there may have been the availability of holding midfielder Edson Alvarez, who spent the first few weeks in the final stages of his recovery from a hamstring injur suffered in Mexico's Copa America opener.
But it took removing Alvarez for forward Danny Ings and adopting a more aggressive posture to find a stoppage-time equalizer in the 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage last weekend.
And the very early returns suggest that 4-1-4-1 leads a more dynamic attack, with the Hammers scoring three goals and creating 3.7 xG across the two games they began in that shape. They scored twice in the latter two matches while generating only 1.5 xG.
Lopetegui is also dealing with some uncertainty up front. Michail Antonio has looked out of rhythm under the new boss, failing to hit the target yet in his six shots. New arrival Niclas Fulkrug has played only 66 minutes and is likely unavailable with an Achilles issue.
West Ham vs Chelsea Prediction
We're still learning who both these sides are under their new bosses, but my first reaction here is that the lean toward Chelsea from oddsmakers is a little too strong for a team that has created only slightly more expected goals than it has conceded.
And the Hammers' underlying numbers are also skewed somewhat by already playing two of last season's top four finishers.
But given West Ham's inconsistencies up front, I want to couple a result for the home side with a somewhat lower total to get a better price. The reality is if this game sees five or more goals scored, that's bad news for Lopetegui's group.
So I'm parlaying a West Ham or draw double chance bet with the total coming in under 4.5. That improves the price on backing the home side +0.5 from -135 to +115.
