West Ham vs. Liverpool Odds
| West Ham Odds | +370 |
| Liverpool Odds | -145 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The final Premier League match before the international break features a top-four battle between West Ham United and Liverpool.
West Ham has been in fantastic form as of late, unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions. The Hammers now find themselves inside the top four and will be looking to get their first result over one of the top teams in England.
Liverpool is also in fantastic form right now and look like one of the best offenses in the world, scoring 29 goals in their first 10 matches in the Premier League.
However, they did give away a 2-0 lead at home last weekend against Brighton, so the Reds showed some vulnerability.
This will also be their first big road test of the Premier League season, so we'll see if they can to grab all three points against one of the four best teams in England right now.
West Ham Creating Chances Like Crazy
The Hammers are so unbelievably good, sitting fourth in NPxG (non-penalty expected goals), fifth in shots per 90 minutes and fourth in big scoring chances. However, what’s important for this matchup is they’re top five in O PPDA (an indicator for the pressing intensity) and pressure success rate allowed.
Those are two stats Brighton is near the top in and we saw what they were able to do against Liverpool’s high press, which is only 12th in pressure success rate this season.
A beautiful team goal finished off by Jarrod Bowen 😍 pic.twitter.com/c27cVe3nD5
— West Ham United (@WestHam) November 1, 2021
West Ham’s defensive modified pairing is maybe the best in the league because of how Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček play off each other. Souček likes to get forward and press higher up the pitch, while Rice is more of the ball winner and the protection for the backline.
This season, Rice is third in the league in tackles plus interceptions, and Souček has the sixth-best pressure success rate for players who have more than 100 pressures this season, per fbref.com.
The question is whether or not West Ham’s back line that is fourth in npxG allowed will hold up against Liverpool’s attack.
Liverpool Defense Due for Regression
Liverpool's offense wasn’t that great against Brighton this past weekend or against Atlético Madrid in Wednesday's Champions League match. Sure, the Reds lead the league with 25.99 xG, but they only created 1.37 xG for the contest.
Fabinho started in the UCL fixture and it looks like Thiago is going to be back as well, so Liverpool’s midfield issues defending in transition that we saw against Brighton should be put to bed with both of those guys returning. However, they're facing another team that can handle their high press, so it's a difficult matchup for Liverpool, especially in the midfield going up West Ham's star midfield pairing.
Liverpool's defense is due for some regression, as well. They've allowed eight goals in the Premier League, but have allowed their opponents to create 11.05 xG. So, against a top five offense like West Ham's we could see some of that regression on Sunday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I do think this is a spot where Liverpool is overvalued. I only have the Reds projected at +109 odds, plus Infogol only has Liverpool at 50%, so I love West Ham +0.5 at +120 odds in this matchup.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 (+120)
