West Ham vs Luton Odds
| West Ham Odds | -125 |
| Luton Town Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250o / +200u |
West Ham look to keep their hopes of securing a Europa Conference League spot alive when they host Luton Town.
Things have gone from bad to worse for West Ham over the recent weeks. They were throughly beat down in a London Derby over the weekend by Chelsea 5-0, which now puts them five points behind Chelsea for seventh place. They are technically still mathematically alive for a Europa Conference League spot, but they need to win out and get a lot of help.
Luton Town's relegation back to the Championship is all but certain at this point, but they are not done yet, which is actually a huge credit to Rob Edwards given what the Hatters have endured this season on the injury front. Luton Town are getting healthier and did put in a good performance against Everton in their recent match, but they need all three points here to have any shot at survival.
Let's get into West Ham vs Luton Town.
West Ham
West Ham do not defend anymore. It doesn't matter if it's in a low defensive block or if they make an attempt at pressing an opponent high, everyone has been able to create chances against them.
Since the start of 2024, they are allowing 2.39 xG per 90 minutes, which is the most in the Premier League. West Ham are a much worse defense and they struggle in the two areas where Luton Town excel. West Ham have allowed the fourth-most crosses into their penalty area, which is basically the only way that Luton Town create chances from open play. West Ham have also been pretty horrific in terms of ball stopping when trying to defend teams in transition.
The Hammers will likely have to be the ones to control a majority of the possession in this match and will probably try to build out of the back from dead ball situations. When they have tried that, it's gone one of two ways. Either they make a costly turnover in their own end or they beat the first line of pressure and get it in the feet of their elite ball carriers like Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, who are able to punish anybody in transition. Since February 26th, West Ham have only been held under one expected goal in three Premier League matches and are averaging 1.46 xG per 90 minutes.
Luton Town
Luton Town abandoned their low block a long time ago and have primarily been trying to press opponents from build up and win the ball high. They have played two teams that are very similar to West Ham in Everton and Wolves recently and have done a relatively good job of defending against them, but West Ham have much better players in attack that can exploit them.
Only West Ham have allowed more expected goals in 2024 with the Hatters, conceding 2.33 per 90 minutes. Rob Edward has basically conceded to the fact that they are so bad in any type of defensive shape that they might as well go for it and try to outscore their opponents. It has helped them offensively by creating some good transition opportunities when they do win the ball high up the pitch. Since January 30th, Luton Town have scored in all but one Premier League match and are averaging 1.30 xG per 90 minutes.
Luton Town are a very unique team in the fact that they don't really play through the middle of the pitch. I am sure Rob Edwards has identified that they are not good enough to compete with teams that have good ball stopping central midfielders, so instead Luton Town have chosen to get the ball out wide and send in a lot of crosses. They have completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area, which is something West Ham have really struggled with.
West Ham vs Luton Town
Prediction
This match should be very back and forth with both teams having absolutely nothing to lose. Luton’s relegation to the Championship is all but certain unless they win here and West Ham are not going to secure a Europa Conference League spot unless they win their final two matches and get a lot of help.
When you have two teams like this who play very similar styles of wanting to play in transition it can create a very high scoring environment. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Luton and West Ham have allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League, primarily because they are both so bad at defending in low defensive blocks and they keep falling behind and having to play more aggressively out of possession, which leads to more space for teams to play in behind them.
I have 3.5 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
