West Ham vs Man City Odds
| West Ham Odds | +600 |
| Man City Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Man City look for three wins to start the season when they travel to London to take on West Ham.
West Ham notched their first win of the season against Crystal Palace over the weekend and followed that up with a late win over Bournemouth in the EFL Cup. Even though they have won back to back matches, they really didn't look impressive doing so, as they are still having some issues switching to Julen Lopetegui's tactics.
Manchester City put in a dominant performance against Ipswich Town, winning 4-1 at home. They did fall behind early, but right after the ball went in the back of the net, they didn't let the Tractor Boys even sniff their net. They have historically dominated West Ham over the past few years and it looks like it will be more of the same on Saturday.
Let's get into my Man City vs West Ham prediction.
West Ham
West Ham really weren't that impressive against Crystal Palace on Saturday. Even though they won the match 2-0, they allowed 1.81 expected goals and most importantly, they allowed the Eagles to pin them inside their own final third. For the match, Crystal Palace ended up having 22 high recoveries and a 74.3% field tilt for the match.
C. Palace 0 : 2 West Ham
▪ xG: 1.81 – 1.38
▪ xThreat: 1.4 – 1.21
▪ Possession: 58.5% – 41.5%
▪ Field Tilt: 74.3% – 25.7%
▪ Def Action Height: 51.7 – 43.1#msbot_eng#eplpic.twitter.com/qPGzbaugNx— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) August 24, 2024
The problem that West Ham are running into at the moment is they are trying to go from being a team that primarily played in a low block and looked to break in transition to a team that now plays a high defensive block and builds out of the back. They have very talented players that are great on ball, but making that type of a drastic switch in tactics typically takes some time before it starts to work.
There is also the glaring hole in the middle of the pitch that West Ham need to address. Two years ago Declan Rice was their only ball stopper in the midfield and last season without him, West Ham cratered defensively into allowing the fourth-most expected goals in the Premier League. They haven't done anything significant in the transfer window to fix that issue, so Manchester City are most likely going to have a lot of success playing through the middle of the pitch.
Man City
Manchester City's match against Ipswich on Saturday looked very similar to how they were playing three years ago. Ipswich beat them on a transition break and scored, but City didn't allow them to take another shot. They quickly went up 3-1 in the first half and went back to old school Pep ball of holding the ball and not letting Ipswich even have a chance to break on them. For the match City had 406 final third touches compared to just 46 for Ipswich.
With İlkay Gündoğan back in the fold, Manchester City now have their perfect balance in the midfield that they were starving for last season. Rodri was forced to play a more advanced role with Kovacic as the more defensive midfielder, which left City without their best ball stopper when teams would break in transition. Now, it allows Rodri to play a deeper role, which ultimately gives Manchester City more control over the match.
The addition on wing of Savinho also gives Manchester City a more dangerous offensive team. Because Pep is obsessed with playing through the middle it often leaves Doku and Savinho in 1 v 1 situations against the opposing fullback, where they are able to create great chances for Haaland. West Ham have really poor defensive fullbacks, so look for City to get their wingers into good situations to beat them off the dribble.
West Ham vs Man City
Betting Pick & Prediction
Manchester City have completely dominated West Ham the last two seasons. They've won all four of the previous meeting in the Premier League by a combined score of 11 to 2 with expected goals favoring City 10.1 to 2.2. One other thing that has been true in those matches is West Ham have very rarely gotten into shooting opportunities.
In all four of those meetings West Ham have not taken more than six shots individually. If how they played against Crystal Palace on Saturday by getting pinned in their own final third is any indication, City might have a 90% field tilt in this game. Especially since they are coming off only giving up only one shot to Ipswich with indications that Pep is going to go back to his uber-control tactics from three years ago.
I only have West Ham projected for 6.3 shots in this match, so I like the value on their shot prop under 8.5 at -138.
