Double chance is among the most popular game props in soccer betting, offering users a "safer" (albeit more expensive) way to back a particular outcome.
In soccer, there are three possible outcomes in a 90-minute match — Team A wins, Team B wins, or it's a draw. With a double chance, you're getting 2/3 options in one bet:
- Team A wins or the match is a draw
- Team B wins or the match is a draw
- Team A wins or Team B wins
The prices will of course vary depending on the ability of each team, so sometimes you'll get double chance markets with similar prices, and other times you'll get a team to win or draw at plus-money.
A double chance does not include extra time in the knockout stages of a tournament, so if you bet a team to win or draw and they lose in extra time, you still win the bet.
Double Chance Example
Let's use USA vs. Wales in the 2022 World Cup to illustrate it.
FanDuel lists all three options for the USA-Wales double chance at greater than -200, because the teams were pretty evenly matched.
- If I bet USA & Draw (-270), I'll win if the US wins or it ends in a draw.
- If I bet Wales & Draw (-210), I'll win if Wales wins or it ends in a draw.
- If I bet USA and Wales (-260), I'll win if either team wins, and lose if it ends in a draw.
The odds of each bet in the double chance market are just a sum of the three-way moneyline probabilities. Here are the probabilities converted to game odds, added together, then converted back to American odds.
| Player Name | Probability | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|
| USA & Draw | 38.46% + 33.90% = 72.36% | -262 |
| Wales & Draw | 33.33% + 33.90% = 67.23% | -205 |
| USA or Wales | 38.46% + 33.33% = 72.36% | -262 |
As you can see, when you add the probabilities of each side together, you get pretty close to the double chance odds. Then the books just add a little juice on top.
Because the lines are pretty pricey (given that they're much more likely to happen because they include two of three possible outcomes), many bettors will parlay multiple double chances together. For example, parlaying USA or Draw and Mexico or Draw in their match against Poland comes out to -109.
Example with a Big Favorite
That's what double chance odds look like for a match that is believed to be relatively even. But what about when one team is a huge favorite?
Let's take a look at England vs. Iran in their opening World Cup match.
Betting the double chance of England or a draw will cost you — it's -1900 at FanDuel! That means a $190 bet will pay out $10. Because England or the draw are by far the most likely outcomes based on the three-way moneyline, you're paying a massive price. For England or Iran, you're also paying a huge price with most of that due to England.
But if you want to bet Iran and Draw, you're getting +220.
Are Double Chances a Good Bet?
There are a few ways handicappers look at double-chance bets.
- Backing an underdog you believe has a chance to keep the game close, but may not win
- Backing a good defensive team in what should be a lower-scoring match
- If the game is higher variance, featuring two teams that can score where the draw is less likely, taking either team to win
- Using a big favorite on the double chance as a parlay piece
Of course, sportsbooks are accounting for all these variables themselves — if a match is projected to be much lower scoring, that's already factored into their pricing for the draw. So whether they're a good bet depends on if you believe you have an edge.
