Wolves vs Aston Villa Preview
Wolves Odds | +200 |
Aston Villa Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+122/ -148) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-112 / -112) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The Wolverhampton Wolves match up against Aston Villa on their home field at Molineux Stadium. While the Wolves are nearly in the clear from the relegation zone (+10000 to be relegated), they have a lot to prove in front of their fans as they hope to make amends following their embarrassing 6-0 defeat at Brighton — their worst league defeat since March 2007, when Southampton beat them by the same score.
Aston Villa’s 1-0 loss to Manchester United on Sunday ended two impressive streaks for the Villans: 10 games unbeaten in the EPL and their first scoreless match in 21 fixtures under manager Unai Emery.
As they hope to finish in the top five and qualify for the Europa League next season, Villa needs this win, especially heading into challenging matches to close the season against their top three rivals in the race to qualify.
Wolves
The Wolves’ horrendous performance against Brighton seems to reflect their lack of feistiness and ambition after they successfully widened the gap to the relegation zone by seven points. However, that likely won’t be the reason they are outperformed by Villa, as they’ll need to bounce back in front of their home crowd. Furthermore, with a win against Villa, the Wolves will officially evade a bottom-three finish.
I have little faith in Wolverhampton for another reason — they’ve been poor all year, especially when it comes to goal scoring.
While the Wolves rest in 14th place in the EPL, they’ve only outscored the bottom-two squads in the EPL: Everton and Southampton. In fact, they’ve failed to score at all in 38% of their league games this season. Julen Lopetegui’s only saving grace could be that the squad has realized recent success in their home stadium, winning their last three at Molineux.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, outside back Nelson Semedo may sit out after being substituted off for an ankle injury during last week’s fixture against Brighton.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa accomplished a lot this season under new manager Unai Emery. After finishing 14th in the 2021-22 season, the Villans now aspire to finish in the top five and compete in the Europa League next season. Villa’s ascent in the table has been largely fueled by recent performances.
Villa has won eight of their last 11 matches and can attribute that success to their remarkable defensive record, keeping a clean sheet in seven of their past eight wins in the EPL. Furthermore, Villa have kept recent away games low scoring, with fewer than 2.5 goals scored in seven of their past nine away matches. Their defensive feats will bode well for them against a Wolverhampton side that struggles to score.
The Villans are expected to receive a massive boost in their lineup with potentially four injured players ready to make their return. Philippe Coutinho, Matty Cash, Boubacar Kamara and Leon Bailey all resumed training this week. Emery said those players will continue to be analyzed individually ahead of Saturday’s match to determine their availability.
Wolves vs Aston Villa Pick
I’ll be taking Aston Villa draw no bet at -134.
I’m expecting a low-scoring Villa victory — under 2.5 in this fixture is priced at -148 and Villa outperform the Wolves at both goal scoring and defending. Villa ranks ninth in goals scored per match (1.4) and sixth in goals conceded per match (1.2). Meanwhile, the Wolves have consistently struggled to put the ball in the back of the net, ranking 18th in goals scored per match (0.9) and 13th in goals conceded per match (1.5).
Both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses, and with Villa’s expected boost from returning players, I see them having the significant edge in this match, even more so if the Wolves lose starting defender Semedo.
Goals will very likely be scarce in this fixture. It’s about which side can capitalize on a few chances. Villa’s Ollie Watkins alone netted six in a row on the road between January and mid-April, and if goal-scoring threats like Bailey or Coutinho return, it will be very unlikely that Villa is shut out.
