Wolves vs Burnley Odds
| Wolves Odds | -120 |
| Burnley Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106 / -118 |
Wolves look to rebound from a loss to Arsenal when they take on Burnley in a bottom of the table clash.
They were beaten 2-1 by Arsenal at the Emirates on Saturday, but that shouldn't distract everyone from the job Gary O'Neill has done. Coming into the season, it seemed Wolves were destined for relegation, but O'Neill has guided them to a mid-table spot and has been slaying giants left and right. However, Wolves have not profiled well as a favorite given their tactical set up, so this match could be interesting.
Burnley picked up just their second win of the season on Saturday, drubbing Sheffield United 5-0 to give them a shot at getting out of the relegation zone. Things are starting to come together for Vincent Kompany's side, which needs points in a hurry to get out of the relegation zone. However, they have reached the easier part of their schedule.
Let's dive into my Wolves vs Burnley prediction.
Wolves
The job that O’Neill has done at Wolves has been nothing short of tremendous. You will not find a team that works harder off the ball than Wolves right now. O’Neill has them set up to press out of a mid-block and their pressing numbers are around the Premier League average, but they lead the Premier League in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and they have been incredibly successful winning ground duels in the middle of the pitch.
Wolves have been giant killers this season, beating both Tottenham and Manchester City, but they have not profiled well as favorites. The only match they won where they were playing even strength for a full 90 minutes (Bournemouth had a red card in Wolves 2-1 win at the Vitality) was against Everton in the third week of the season, and expected goals were pretty even.
In fact, in their six matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, Wolves have a -2.1 expected goal differential. The reason for that is because Gary O’Neill’s teams are much better without the ball and playing in transition. The question is in this match does he hand the ball to Burnley and try to play more in transition, or as a decent favorite does he try to put the pressure on his team to control possession and build up through Burnley's pressure.
Wolves are potentially going to be without some key personnel in this match. Pedro Neto is still out, which is massive because he is leading the team in assists, progressive carries and passes into the penalty area. Rayan Ait Nouri, who is their best full back, is questionable, and their goalkeeper Jose Sa is also questionable. If Sa is out that means it's going to be Daniel Bentley, who has spent his entire career in the lower divisions of English football to start in net. He spent his last four seasons with Bristol City and had a -5.2 post shot xG +/-, per fbref.com.
Burnley
If there was ever a spot to back Burnley, this is it. Kompamy’s side played a difficult schedule at the beginning of the season and are starting to improve as they face teams near them in the table.
Burnley have played five matches against the bottom nine teams in the Premier League and they have a +0.3 xGD in those matches as every single one of them has been pretty even outside of their 5-0 drubbing of Sheffield United on Saturday, but they just haven't gotten the results they deserve. In fact, Burnley are at 12.4 expected points, but they have only accrued seven points, so they are due for some positive regression.
The big question mark for Burnley in this match is their build up play. Wolves are a very versatile side tactically where they will essentially press high when they feel they can win the ball off an opponent, which could work in this match, but Burnley have already played a side that will press them high in Bournemouth and they did a pretty good job in build up having an 80% pass completion rate, which is right around their average for the season.
One of the main reasons why Burnley's defensive numbers have been so bad is because of how many times they have turned the ball over high, it's the reason why they are dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. However, Kompany has at times gone away from his relentless high press and played a very compact structure.
So, Kompany is clearly trying to figure out how to play against bigger sides, but one thing is clear. He's figured out how to hang with teams around him in the table.
Wolves vs Burnley
Prediction
While Wolves have been a very profitable team against the big clubs, they haven't really profiled well as a favorite. O'Neill is going to need to set his team up to play very direct and allow Burnley to possess the ball. That's a hard thing to stomach when you are a sizable favorite at home in front of all of your fans.
While Burnley haven't gotten the results this season, the underlying process is definitely improving. The perception of their club is bad because they played seven clubs in the top half of the table in their first nine matches of the season. Even though their only two wins have come against newly promoted sides, they played an incredibly even matches with Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham, so I think they are a tad undervalued in this match.
I like the value on Burnley +0.5 at +105.
