Wolves vs Chelsea Odds
| Wolves Odds | +220 |
| Chelsea Odds | -106 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
There's just one Sunday match in match week 18 of the Premier League as 10th-placed Chelsea travel to the West Midlands to face off against 13th-placed Wolves.
Just three points separate the Blues and Wolves in the Premier League table, a sign of how much Chelsea have fallen short of preseason expectations and how Gary O'Neil's side has surpassed theirs at the Molineux.
The Blues did have key summer signing Christopher Nkunku make his Chelsea debut in the midweek EFL Cup triumph against Newcastle on penalties. Nkunku came off the bench for a 20-minute stretch in place of Nicolas Jackson, but it remains to be seen if Nkunku will be inserted right into the first XI.
Chelsea managed a win at home against Sheffield United, 2-0, last week in the league, but the lackluster first-half showing leaves questions about the Blues' consistency. The market prices them at their relative ceiling, but the Blues haven't been consistent enough to warrant that price here on the road.
Here is how I'm betting Wolves vs Chelsea.
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Wolves
It's unlikely that he will start this match, but Wolves forward Pedro Neto trained the entire week with the squad and is expected to feature in the match.
The attacking group scraped by without him, but Wolves were at their best as an attack when he was on the pitch. Neto is one of the best dribbles and ball carriers not just in the Premier League, but in the world.
He produced 0.52 xG + xA per 90 this season and led the Premier League in progressive carries prior to his hamstring injury against Newcastle. Even if he can only play a half for 30 minutes, it gives the Wolves attack a considerably higher upside.
Gary O'Neil has taken some of the principles that he improved Bournemouth last spring and applied them to this Wolves team. The first one is set pieces. There's no particular reason to expect Wolves to be efficient on set pieces given personnel, but they excel at both ends of the pitch. No team in the Premier League averages more xG per set piece in attack than Chelsea, which makes it a major key to slow down this avenue of attack.
Chelsea scored twice on set pieces against Brighton to break that game open and stayed in the match with Manchester City because of them. Wolves are the best set piece defense by xGA per set piece. In attack, Wolves take advantage when they're able to get numbers into the box. They rank seventh in xG created from dead-ball situations.
As an underdog, excelling in transition and on set plays is the great equalizer. Wolves can do both effectively.
Chelsea
Chelsea have shown real flashes of being a dynamic attacking side, especially when they're able to find space in behind the opponent. Games against Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal and even Manchester City have shown the strengths of the Blues out of possession and on the break.
The problems for Chelsea have come in trying to break down lower defensive blocks. The Blues lost to West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Brentford. They have been quite inconsistent on a week to week basis, and even within the same game.
The Blues managed four total first half shots and 0.1 xG, and none of them came from within 25 yards of the Sheffield goal. They'll have a similar difficult task to break down the Wolves defensive approach, and Wolves can nullify their set piece advantage a bit.
Wolves do like to have a bit of possession in their own half to springboard their attacks from, so Chelsea are sure to get some opportunities to force high turnovers. Wolves rank 12th in build-up completion rate, 11th in possession percentage and they can play through pressure at times. But Chelsea are the best team in the league at pressing and forcing high turnovers. Even despite that, the attack is fifth in non-penalty xG.
The biggest question is whether Nkunku can help them be more efficient at creating and finishing chances around the penalty area. Right now, the Blues attack isn't good enough consistently enough to overcome the recent drop-off in defense numbers.
Wolves vs Chelsea
Prediction
Chelsea won't enjoy and be able to exploit their usual set piece advantage here. Wolves are getting healthy with Neto back, Jose Sá is expected to be in goal and the Blues should be plus money, not odds on, to win this match.
They have played better than their position in the table overall, but if you cycle for just 11 v 11 minutes, the Blues aren't close to the top four or five team that the market thinks they are with this price.
