Wolves vs Chelsea Odds
| Wolves Odds | +350 |
| Chelsea Odds | -138 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Chelsea look to rebound from an opening loss to Manchester City when they travel to the Molineux to take on Wolves.
Wolves lost their opening match to Arsenal, but they really didn't play that bad. Under Gary O'Neill Wolves have proven to be really pesky underdogs against the big boys. Chelsea saw that first hand when they lost both matches to Wolves last season. They have had some key players depart, but there is still stability in the squad and they looked primed for another upset.
The first match under Enzo Maresca wasn't as bad as the final scoreline showed. They did lose the match 2-0, but they ended up out-creating Manchester City on expected goals, which should give them some confidence coming into this match. Off the field, Chelsea look like a complete mess with the shear amount of players that still need to be loaned or sold and that mess will only get worse if they don't get three points here.
Here is my Chelsea vs Wolves prediction.
Wolves Picks
Wolves have proven under Gary O'Neill that they are one of the most adaptable teams in the Premier League. O'Neill recognized early on in his tenure that Wolves were not going to be a team that dominates possession and turned them into a really solid defensive team. They will typically defend in a mid to low defensive block and have consistently been one of the best box defending teams in the Premier League.
The underlying data will tell you that Wolves were horrendous last season, but it really doesn't tell the full story. Wolves were one of the best teams not only in the Premier League, but in all of Europe's top five leagues at blocking shots and preventing crosses from getting into the penalty area. Their keeper Jose Sa had the best post-shot xG +/- in the Premier League last season, so having an above average goalkeeper and being a good penalty box defending team will always allow you to over perform, but it isn't necessarily going to cause to to have severe negative regression as the numbers would suggest.
Wolves are also a dangerous counterattacking team. When they win the ball they break quickly and have the attackers in Hee Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha to punish you. The two of them combined for 24 goals last season and against Chelsea Cunha had a hat trick in the second meeting.
Chelsea Picks
Last season, Chelsea were always a team that played well as an underdog, but they consistently would stumble as heavy favorites. That is in large part due to the fact that they are a better transition team than a build up team. Maresca is from the Guardiola coaching tree, so he's always going to want his team to build out of the back and control possession. He wants his team to build up in a 3-2-5 structure with the aim at overloading the middle of the pitch.
Control is paramount in raising the ceiling for your team, but not if it doesn't allow you steadily and consistently create high quality chances. At this moment, Chelsea don't have a consistent striker that can give them stable goal production. They have a lot of wingers and attacking midfielders that can create chances, but nobody to finish off those chances, which is why they consistently have underperformed compared to their underlying numbers.
There is also growing concern that Maresca's out of possession tactics are too aggressive and leave Chelsea too exposed. He wants his team to press high with a lot of aggression, but against Manchester City, it left them getting overloaded out wide far too many times. Chelsea were a very poor transition defense last season ranking 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate. So pressing with more aggression is only going to make those issues worse.
Wolves vs Chelsea
Prediction
Chelsea are already in a pretty bad spot here on the road. They host Servette in a Europa Conference League qualification match on Thursday, so Wolves will have a big rest advantage. The Blues were also pretty poor away from Stamford Bridge last season having a -2.8 expected goal differential compared to +19.2 at home.
Wolves are going to be a really difficult team to break down sitting in their low defensive block. Chelsea consistently struggled in these types of matches against good defensive teams because they don't have a consistent striker who can finish off the chances they create. It's one of the main reasons why Wolves beat them twice last season.
I really like this spot for Wolves and think there are live underdogs here at home, so I like the value on them +0.5 at +110.
