Wolves vs. Everton EPL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Pace Slowing Down in England (Tuesday, Jan. 12)

Wolves vs. Everton Odds

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While the Premier League was off at the weekend for the FA Cup, the English top flight returns for midweek action on Tuesday with Everton and Wolves set to face off at Molineux Stadium in the West Midlands.

Both teams have struggled for offense of late, hence the low total.

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Wolves

Wolves keep finding and scrounging goals from absolutely nothing, and it’s unsustainable given their actual attacking output. Since the injury to striker Raul Jimenez against Arsenal, Wolves have thrived off of great finishing, set pieces, penalty kicks and even an own goal against Brighton.

Wolves have attempted four shots from inside the opponents’ six-yard box all season, the fewest in the Premier League. Everton have attempted the most but many of those shots came from Calvert-Lewin, who will not play.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have 18 goals this season — five from corner kicks, two from set pieces and two from the penalty spot. The five goals from corners from 1.33 xG, including multiple goals in their last few matches vs Spurs and Brighton. Wolves have averaged 0.75 NPxG in their last six matches since the Jimenez injury, which is an extremely worrying sign.

Perhaps even more worrying for Wolves, though, is their lack of form defensively. Only five teams have allowed more expected goals against (xGA), and only six teams have a worse non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) than Wolverhampton.

They were legitimately good the last two years, solidly a top-seven team. That’s not even close to true in this campaign. They’re unlikely to find themselves in a relegation battle, but they are playing like a bottom-half team.

Everton

The Everton season to date can really be broken into three parts.
In part one, the Toffees were one of the league’s best teams in both performance and results. They earned 13 of a possible 15 points in their first five games but once injuries started piling up, they did not have the depth to keep up the performances.

That gets us into part two. Everton’s defensive numbers regressed predictably, and the lack of fitness throughout the squad hurt their ability to create chances. They won one of their ensuing next six matches and dropped into the bottom half of the table.

In part three, the results have started to turn around. Winners of four in five, Everton are grinding out results despite very mediocre underlying performances. They’ve produced about 0.7 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) per match during that stretch.

The return of James Rodriguez from injury — the Colombian midfielder played 20 minutes against West Ham in the Toffees’ New Year’s Day defeat — should bolster their attack. He’s their primary offensive creator with 0.33 expected assists (xA) per 90 minutes.

While Rodriguez is back, the Toffees will be without striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin. DCL’s absence is a major problem for the Toffees since he averages 0.53 xG per 90 minutes and has eight more goals (11 in total) than any other Everton player.

Everton can turn to Cenk Tosun or Bernard to help make up for the lost production, but neither has shown the ability to consistently produce.

Betting Analysis & Picks

The Premier League’s recent string of unders isn’t just explained by finishing variance. The players are tired, the injuries are piling up and the drop in the quality of play has been noticeable. With no clear break for either team, I don’t foresee this changing in the short term.

I project this game with 2.18 goals, and with Jimenez and Calvert-Lewin out, there’s no way either team creates a lot of chances or goals without flukes.

For that reason, I’ll pay the extra juice on the under 2.25 goals. If Everton gets to +125 or better on the draw no bet line (currently +115), I’d play Everton as well. They’ll still have the two best attacking players on the pitch in Richarlison and Rodriguez, and Wolves’ defensive numbers are slipping.

Picks: Under 2.25 (-130), Everton draw no bet (+125 or better)