Wolves vs Fulham Odds
| Wolves Odds | +150 |
| Fulham Odds | +175 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -112 |
Wolves look to respond from a rare blowout defeat on Saturday when they host a Fulham side that has struggled picking up points as an away team.
Without Hwang Hee-Chan and Matheus Cunha, Wolves were thumped 3-0 last weekend by resurgent Newcastle United. It was only Gary O'Neil's squad's third defeat by three or more goals, curiously all coming against the three teams immediately above Wolves in the current league table.
Fulham travel to the Midlands following a 3-0 home win over Brighton that bolstered their strong form at Craven Cottage, even if the final score flattered the victors. But their 2-1 win at Manchester United the weekend before marked only the Cottagers' second away victory all season.
Fulham earned a 3-2 win in these sides' previous meeting, which was incidentally the first time an over 2.5 wager had cashed in the last nine fixtures between them.
Here is how I'm betting Wolves vs Fulham.
Wolves
Hwang and Cunha have combined for 19 Premier League goals this season, and fully 45% of Wolves' total product this season. Without either at his disposal, O'Neil will have to get creative in terms of creating an attacking threat.
At Newcastle, he inserted versatile attacker Pedro Neto into the top of his 3-4-3, a move that didn't go particularly well. Neto had zero shots and just one shot-creating action before exiting the game as an injury precaution at halftime. The most active Wolves attacker was probably Pablo Sarabia down the right, albeit on a day that didn't feature all that many chances for anyone.
Sasa Kalajdzic was the most pure positional fit at the center forward role off the bench, but with the Austrian receiving only sporadic playing time, he was sent on a six-month loan to Eintracht Frankfurt in January.
On the other end of the pitch, trusted goalkeeper Jose Sa also left at halftime against Newcastle. But like Neto, O'Neil said Friday his removal was precautionary and that both are expected to be in the squad for this one.
Despite O'Neil's injury woes, his side's confidence should be bolstered by a return to a home venue where they've lost only four times in the league this season. Brentford are the only away side beneath Wolves in the table to have earned a league victory at The Molineaux, a 2-0 win on Feb. 10.
Fulham
Fulham have been dealing with their own attacking absence, with striker Raul Jimenez missing the last month with a hamstring injury. But it has provided an opportunity for Brazilian 22-year-old Rodrigo Muniz, one he has seized with vigor.
Muniz had only three career Premier League starts prior to Jimenez going on the shelf, but he has made it virtually impossible for Marco Silva to pull him out of the XI with his recent form, scoring five goals in his last five games. He's been so good that Armando Broja, whom Fulham acquired on loan from Chelsea in the secondary transfer window, has played only 40 league minutes since his arrival.
The Cottagers have also been boosted by the returns of Calvin Bassey and Alex Iwobi from the Nigerian national team after each missed a month or so helping the Super Eagles reach the African Cup of Nations final. Both men scored in Fulham's 2-1 win over Manchester United two weekends ago, with Iwobi's decider coming seven minutes into second-half stoppage time after Harry Maguire had pulled the Red Devils level.
Joao Palinha is likely to return to his familiar defensive midfield role after he completed a two-match ban for earning his 10th yellow card of the season. And U.S. national team left back Antonee Robinson continues to be a regular in Silva's back line, although fellow American Tim Ream has lost his center back place of late.
Wolves vs Fulham
Prediction
Even when at full strength, while Wolves have maintained a strong home record, the matches at The Molineaux have profiled differently when they are the higher team in the table.
Six of their last seven league games at home have come against bottom-half sides. The total has gone over 3.5 in none of them. And at least one team has kept a clean sheet in four.
Meanwhile, when you look at Fulham's away record, their track record against upper-echelon teams suggests goals will come on both sides.
But with Hwang and Cunha both unavailable, Wolves profile more like a bottom-half team. And Fulham's away matches against such foes mirror the same pattern as Wolves' trends at home: Over 3.5 only once in five games. Clean sheets kept by one team in four of the five.
Then there's still the question of whether Fulham's recent attacking run is sustainable given Muniz's lack of track record and the presence of two of the league's better goalkeepers in Jose Sa and Bernd Leno.
It's not the perfect sample size, given that you're taking some liberties in how you are grading Wolves. And it may feel uncomfortable, given the overall Premier League trends this season. But it's enough of an intersection of tendencies to identify the 'no' wager on both teams to score as the highest value here.
At +120 odds, you're backing a favorable 45.5% implied probability. There's probably still value closer to even money — where some other books have it — but not north of it.
