Liverpool look to build on their win over Bournemouth when they travel to the Molineux to take on Wolves.
It's been a difficult season for Wolves so far, as they only have one point on the season. To be fair, they have played the most difficult schedule of anyone to begin the season and it's only going to get harder on Saturday when Liverpool comes to town. Gary O'Neill has done a good job in a bad situation, but things have to turn around in a hurry or else he may not be the manager much longer.
After a shocking home loss to Nottingham Forest, Liverpool turned things around, beating AC Milan 3-1 on the road in the Champions League and then earning a convincing win over Bournemouth at home to make it four wins in their first five matches in the Premier League. They are in a difficult situation after having played West Ham in the League Cup on Wednesday and have to host Bologna in the Champions League, so they better be careful not to trip up here.
Here is my Wolves vs. Liverpool prediction.
Wolves vs. Liverpool Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Wolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +210 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +650 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -275 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -275 |
- Wolves vs. Liverpool moneyline odds: Wolves +650, Liverpool -275, Draw +450
- Wolves vs. Liverpool over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Wolves vs. Liverpool pick: Under 3.5
I am backing the Under 3.5 in Liverpool vs. Wolves.
Wolves Preview
The core problem with Wolves right now is they don't have enough in their attack to threaten good defensive teams. Losing Pedro Neto late in the transfer window was a massive loss, as they don't have a main creator out wide or in the middle that can supply the front line. Having forwards like Matheus Cunha, Hee-Chan Hwang and Jørgen Strand Larsen does give you chance at having a mid-table level offense, but with nobody to supply them Wolves are stuck.
Through their first five matches they have only created 4.9 expected goals and are averaging 10.8 shots per 90 minutes, which is the fifth-lowest amount in the Premier League. They've shown against good defensive teams like Arsenal and Nottingham Forest that they can't consistently beat those teams in transition or break them down when they are in a settled defensive block. Liverpool have drastically improved defensively this season under Slot, so I am not sure how Wolves create more than one expected goal.
The defense is shipping goals for fun at this point, as the loss of Max Kilman has been felt across their back line. Wolves have conceded 14 goals in five matches, with most of those coming against Chelsea. The problem with Wolves is they allow way too much space in the middle of the pitch, so teams are constantly able to overload them.
They drastically over-performed defensively last season and they are feeling the effects of that negative regression this year. A lot of it has to do with the fact that both Jose Sa and Sam Johnston have been below average goalkeepers and they aren't defending the penalty area at an elite level like they did last season.
Liverpool Preview
Liverpool have been incredible so far this season, as Arne Slot has taken a blend of what they were under Jurgen Klopp and also given them the ability to slow things down and control matches.
Slot is typically having his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the midfield to be the main conductor of the entire build up. It really works when they are able to bait teams into pressing them and use their three man combinations to play through the opponent's press. However, if you are able to sit in a low compact defensive block like Nottingham Forest did, Liverpool are going to have some problems. They are still looking to play direct when the opportunity is there, but what happens when teams don't allow them to play direct? Can they continually create high quality chances?
The biggest change for Liverpool has come defensively. They are so much more structured and disciplined out of possession than they were under Klopp. They are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack. It's really been working so far, as they have only conceded 3.9 expected goals in their five Premier League matches and likely won't even allow Wolves to have any sort of numerical advantage in transition.
Wolves vs Liverpool Prediction
This is a difficult spot for Liverpool with all of the fixtures they have been playing over the past few weeks, so we could potentially see some squad rotation from them with Champions League coming up in the midweek.
With the improvements in the Liverpool defense and the way they were able to shutdown transition based teams like Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth, I am not sure how Wolves are really going to create anything of value in this match, especially without a main creator to get the ball to the front line.
Wolves are due for some positive regression defensively and will try to set up in a passive defensive block to keep Liverpool out for as long as possible.
The totals in Liverpool matches continue to be too high given their new style of play under Arne Slot, so I think there is a little bit of value on the under.
