Wolves vs Luton Town Odds
| Wolves Odds | -106 |
| Luton Town Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163/+130 |
Wolves have zero wins in their last seven matches in all competitions following a midweek defeat to Bournemouth and have fallen out of the top half of the Premier League. Gary O'Neil's side has drifted to 12th and Saturday's home match against Luton Town is their best chance at a win based on pre-match odds in their final four games. Wolves don't have a ton to play for in this final stretch, and they have been downgraded by the market as a result.
Luton Town have one win in the league since February began and they're now in desperation mode as they look to surpass Nottingham Forest and leap out of the relegation places with a win on Saturday. Luton have four matches remaining — Wolves (A), Everton (H), West Ham (A) and Fulham (H) — to conclude the season. They'll likely need at least four points to have any real chance of staying up.
It's common to see the market overrate the poor teams at the bottom of the league table as they have perceived extra motivation to fight off relegation. I usually tend to play against this market overreaction and thus Wolves is the only bettable side in this matchup.
Read on for my Wolves vs Luton Town prediction.
Wolves
The injury situation at Wolves left them struggling to piece together an attack in the last month. They remain without top creator and dribbler Pedro Neto, but Wolves now have both Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha fit to start for this match after Cunha came off the bench in Wolves' 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth in the midweek and Hee-chan started.
The underlying numbers for Wolves never suggested they were actually a top half team, despite their excellent patch of form in February and March that vaulted them as high as eighth in the PL table. Wolves should have all three of their best midfielders fit for this match with Jean-Ricner Bellegarde back in training this week. He may only be fit enough to play off the bench, but Wolves also have their first choice midfielders Mario Lemina and Joao Gomes fit enough to start on Wednesday.
Despite the game to game fluctuation, their underlying numbers have been generally pretty consistent across the aggregates this year. If you take only 11-on-11 minutes this year, Wolves had a -0.31 xG difference per 90 minutes from the start of the season through Christmas. Since 2024 began, their numbers are roughly the same at -0.35 xG difference per 90. It's below average performances overall, but still a clear tier above their Saturday opponent.
Luton Town
Luton Town's defense is allowing 2.35 xGA per 90 minutes in the second half of the season. It's not all that much better than the first half of the year, when they benefitted from poor finishing variance by their opponents and some excellent goalkeeping to stay competitive in matches. The dam has broken for Rob Edwards' defense in the second half and the goals have continued to pour in against Luton.
West Ham have the third-worst defense by goals allowed per match in the second half of the year at 2.16. Luton and Sheffield United are an entire tier worse at 2.47 and 2.74, respectively. The only reason Luton is above Sheffield United is their better goalkeeper because Luton actually concede the greater quantity and quality of chances to opponents.
Given the injury situation in the Luton defense, there's no real way for Edwards to schematically plan around this. Luton still excel in attacking set pieces. They're an effective crossing team and have scored plenty of goals. It's not all bad for Luton Town in their attempt to pull off this upset against Wolves and against the rest of the Premier League this season, but Luton Town are more than half goal worse by both xG and actual goal difference than Wolves.
Wolves vs Luton Town
Prediction
Luton will be a popular underdog pick given Wolves poor form entering this match and the perceived significant motivation edge for Luton Town as they attempt to fight off relegation. But my projections suggest Wolves should be closer to -150 and you're able to buy them at a discount because of the must win tax placed on Luton here.
I'd bet Wolves on the moneyline as O'Neil's side continues to get healthier and they are the considerably better team at home here.
