Man City look to keep pace with Arsenal and Liverpool when they travel to the Molineux to take on Wolves.
Wolves are in a dire situation at the moment. Before the international break they were beaten 5-3 by Brentford, which means they have only picked up one point from their first seven matches. They have played one of the most difficult schedules, but Gary O'Neill needs to start picking up points in a hurry if he's going to have a job come Christmas.
Manchester City got a big time scare from Fulham before the international break winning only 3-2 while honestly getting outplayed. It's been a strange season for the defending champions with so much happening off the pitch along with the injury to their star player Rodri. These are the types of matches that they cannot afford to slip up if they are going to win a record fifth straight Premier League title.
Here is my Wolves vs. Man City prediction.
Wolves vs. Man City Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Wolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +240 | 2.5 -225 / +175u | +800 |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -320 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -320 |
- Wolves vs. Man City moneyline odds: Wolves +800, Man City -320, Draw +500
- Wolves vs. Man City over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Wolves vs. Man City pick: Erling Haaland 2+ goals & Over 3.5 shots on target
I am playing Erling Haaland 2+ goals and Erling Haaland over 3.5 shots on target in Man City vs. Wolves.
Wolves Preview
The core problem with Wolves right now is they don't have enough in their attack to threaten good defensive teams. Losing Pedro Neto late in the transfer window was a massive loss as they don't have a main creator out wide or in the middle that can supply the front line. Having forwards like Matheus Cunha, Hee-Chan Hwang and Jørgen Strand Larsen does give you chance at having a mid-table level offense, but with nobody to supply them Wolves are stuck. That is why they've only been able to create 6.6 expected goals through their first seven matches.
The defense is shipping goals for fun at this point, as the loss of Max Kilman has been felt across their back line. Wolves have conceded 21 goals in seven matches, with over half of those goals coming against Chelsea and Brentford. The problem with Wolves is they allow way too much space in the middle of the pitch, so teams are constantly able to overload them. That is a big problem against the best team in the world at playing through the middle.
The other problem is they aren't defending their penalty area at an elite level anymore. The reason they stayed up last season despite terrible underlying metrics was because they were one of the best teams at blocking shots and defending crosses into their penalty area. They are allowing the third-most box entries and have the third worst final third to box entry conversion rate allowed, which is a bad sign against the best offensive team in the Premier League.
They drastically over-performed defensively last season and they are feeling the effects of that negative regression this year. A lot of it has to do with the fact that both Jose Sa and Sam Johnston have been below average goalkeepers.
Man City Preview
What has been happenening to Manchester City this season is teams have made the decision to concede most of the possession and sit in a very compact deep defensive block, which is forcing Manchester City to settle for a lot of low quality efforts. The Cityzens lead the Premier League with 54 shots from outside the box and currently have the fifth-highest average shot distance.
The reason for that is Guardiola is obsessed with controlling the middle of the pitch and everyone knows it. So, when teams are sitting in those low, compact defensive structures, there is no space to pass the ball through the middle even if they have a 5 v 4 or 6 v 5 overload. Manchester City have big issues because they have lost Rodri for the season and Kevin De Bruyne might not play in this match.
Without Rodri, City lose ultimate control over a match, with Kovacic now thrusted into that role. He did score two goals in their previous game, but him with lkay Gündoğan in middle doesn't provide City with enough ball winning, so teams that are decent in transition have been able to punish them. Their last match against Fulham was a perfect example as there were way too many instances where Fulham had a numerical advantage on the break and were really unlucky not to win the match, as they created 2.6 expected goals.
Wolves vs. Man City Prediction
For me, there really isn't much value on this match in the main markets. City certainly have had problems breaking down low blocks like the one Wolves are going to throw at them, but I am not sure Wolves have enough to break in transition and cause Manchester City any problems.
Instead, I think there is some value in the player props market on Manchester City's star striker Erling Haaland. I am not breaking any news telling you he's the best striker in the world, but what I find interesting is he's getting a higher level of production this season than he ever has in a Manchester City shirt.
This season he's averaging 4.8 shots per 90 minutes and averaging 3.1 shots on target, which is double what he's averaged over the two previous seasons. He's had four or more shots on target in three different matches this season against West Ham, Brentford and 10-man Arsenal. Wolves' defensive set up is not a whole lot different from West Ham or Brentford, so I think Haaland is in for a big game given how badly Wolves has defended in wide areas, along with crosses into the box.
