Wolves vs Man United Odds
| Wolves Odds | +175 |
| Man United Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Manchester United survived a scare in the FA Cup against fourth division Newport County on Monday and the Red Devils now hit the road for the second time in three days as they visit Wolves at the Molineux on Thursday.
Wolves are playing without top striker Hwang Hee-chan, who is away on international duty at the Asian Cup. Even without him, Gary O'Neil's side played two tight matches with Brentford in the FA Cup and then played even at Brighton in their only PL match in January. The performances haven't taken a noticeable dip with Hee-chan out of the lineup and they match up pretty well with the disorganized press of the generally overvalued Manchester United.
This is a rematch of the opening Monday Night Football matchup of the season, which proved to be a harbinger of bad performances to come for Manchester United as the Red Devils survived 1-0 despite conceding more than two expected goals. Not much has improved for United since opening match week and they shouldn't be a small road favorite at Wolves.
Check out how I'm betting Wolves vs Man United.
Wolves
Wolves enter this match as healthy as they've been all season. There's not a single player on the injury report, and the only absences for O'Neil are AFCON and Asian Cup related. They have two key advantages in this matchup. The first is set pieces. Wolves have conceded the fourth-fewest expected goals from dead ball situations and rank above average in set piece efficiency in attack. Manchester United are bottom five in both categories and in a coin flip match, the set pieces are often the difference.
Wolves also have the most goals scored from high turnovers forced in the entire PL. They rank just 11th in passes per defensive action, but they're excellent at springing pressing traps at the right time to force turnovers in the highest of leverage places.
Compare this to Manchester United, who have scored just once from a high turnover all season — the equalizer against Nottingham Forest in their second-most recent PL match. Wolves have scored six goals from those scenarios.
Wolves aren't just better at turning high turnovers into goals, but their defensive unit is better at preventing big scoring chances when they don't recover the ball high. United have been consistently broken open by a few progressive carries and passes and the lack of defensive solidity is why they have a negative xG differential.
Man United
Manchester United will have goalkeeper Andre Onana back from AFCON following Cameroon's elimination from the tournament. But there are other concerns surrounding Marcus Rashford's current status. He didn't make the trip to Newport in the FA Cup for "illness" reasons, but rumors circulated that Erik ten Hag didn't take him for disciplinary reasons. Given the freezing out and suspension of Jadon Sancho prior to Sancho's loan to Dortmund, there are questions about the relationship between ten Hag and Rashford. He hasn't been in great form for most of this season, but he's still the second-best attacking player at the club behind Bruno Fernandes.
Ten Hag was asked about Rashford on Wednesday and said, "He has taken responsibility, and for the rest, it's an internal matter. Case closed." Rashford is back with the team now, but that doesn't mean he'll be in the starting lineup. The main boost for Manchester United is the return of both Lisandro Martinez and Casemiro from long term injury. Both are expected to start in this match, but the impact of that on United's defense remains a real question.
Even when both played early in the season, the tactical issues in defending in transition remained a real issue. Casemiro's tackles are down this year and his giveaways are up. The eye test suggested that he was a bit slower prior to the injury and now he's recovering from a significant injury.
It's clear that the market has given United a bump for the return of the key defensive players, but the defense is still 17th in shots allowed, 14th in non-penalty xG allowed and 15th in big scoring chances. Those kind of defensive flaws run beyond just the names on the team sheet.
Wolves vs Man United
Prediction
If you remove penalties and red cards from the same penalty, Wolves and Manchester United have nearly identical expected goal differentials through more than half a season of data. Maybe United will find form now that they are healthier, but it's not like the club was performing at higher levels before the injury crisis.
A healthy United is worth something, but not enough to make the Red Devils a small road favorite. I'd bet Wolves draw no bet at anything -110 or better
