Wolves vs Newcastle Odds
| Wolves Odds | +260 |
| Newcastle Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175o/+137u |
Newcastle United looks to continue its unbeaten start to the new campaign when it visits a Wolverhampton Wanderers side still in search of its first league win.
Newcastle have had a favorable fixture list to start their third full season under manager Eddie Howe. But their best performance came against arguably the most difficult opponent, a 2-1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur heading into the international break.
Wolves were faced with a far more difficult start to their second campaign under Gary O'Neil's guidance in the form of losses to Arsenal and Chelsea in their home and away openers. They earned a cagey 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest the last time out after a League Cup victory the midweek before.
The visiting Magpies are unbeaten in their last five against Wolves overall. But five of the last six fixtures played at the Molineaux Stadium have been draws.
Wolves
Newcastle is a team looking to prove that last year's early Champions exit and league finish outside the European places owed more to schedule congestion and a rash of injuries than squad quality. This year's early results do more to support than contradict that theory, though every game the Magpies have played has been tightly contested.
And after grinding out a 1-0 win with 10 men against Southampton in their opener, a theme that has emerged in their latter two league games is the preference for high-quality chances over high volume. Even factoring in the Southampton match, the Magpies began the weekend third in the Premier League in average expected goals value per shot at 0.15, behind only Manchester United and Liverpool.
Center-back Fabian Schar will return after serving a three-match ban for his head butt of Southampton's Ben Brereton Diaz in the opener, with one of those games served during a League Cup clash at Nottingham Forest that saw the Magpies advance on penalties. And midfielder Sandro Tonali could also make his first start of the new campaign after the expiration of his 10-month ban for betting activities.
Newcastle
O'Neil is tasked with building on his promising first season at the Molineaux while having to cope with the transfer exit of key attacker Pedro Neto. And so far the Portuguese winger's move to Chelsea appears to have had a substantial ripple effect on former teammate Hwang Hee-Chan.
Despite missing time to play in the Asia Cup and for injury last season, Hwang tied for the team lead with 12 goals and was second on Wolves with 15 goal involvements. So far this campaign, he he failed to register a single shot, let alone an effort on target, in 179 minutes.
That simply has to change for Wolves to make progress. But the good news is it may be a function of the early opponents, with most of his minutes coming in Wolves' first two defeats. He also may carry some restored confidence following a goal for the South Korean national team in Tuesday's World Cup qualifier at Oman.
Wolves vs Newcastle
Prediction
Wolves were only shut out at home on three occasions last season, and two of those came during the spring when O'Neil grappled with a horrific run of injuries. It's a trend that has also carried over so far this year when they scored twice before before losing grip of the match later in a 6-2 home defeat to Chelsea.
While Newcastle have conceded only twice so far this season, they've ridden their luck considerably, having allowed opponents 5.2 expected goals so far. Although the Magpies are better now than in last year's injury-ridden campaign, their awful away defensive record still stands out, with multiple goals conceded in 13 of those 19 away league fixtures.
Add the combination of Hwang finding a goal on international duty to boost his confidence, and the late Sunday kickoff allowing extra time to recover from the trip, and I think this is a good spot to back the Wolves attack even as it continues to grapple with Neto's departure.
I'm playing the team total for Wolves over 1.5 goals at +146 odds and an implied 40.7% probability instead of a double-chance or draw-no-bet wager on the home side. For me, it's as likely that Wolves score two and lose than score zero or one and take at least a point, and the price is better on the former.
Pick: Wolves team total over 1.5 goals (+146, FanDuel)
