Wolves vs Sheffield United Odds
| Wolves Odds | -223 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Wolves will look for their first back-to-back league wins of 2024 on Sunday when they host a Sheffield United side that appears to be running ideas in their quest for Premier League survival.
Wolves have been among the best giant killers amid the mid-table PL clubs this season, most recently felling Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 in London to complete a season sweep. But they’ve also lost back-to-back home matches — perhaps an inevitable regression after they went eight unbeaten in the league at The Molineaux from the end of September to the end of December.
Sheffield United may be happy to be the visitors on Sunday given how poorly their last two home matches have turned out. They lost both by the same 5-0 score, though in fairness the more recent defeat to Brighton last weekend was transformed by an early red card to winter Blades loan signing Mason Holgate.
The Blades won these sides'jor previous meeting 2-1 at Bramall Lane, one of only three league wins this season.
Here is how I'm betting Wolves vs Sheffield United.
Wolves
11th-place Wolves have reached their relatively lofty position in the table — relative to recent seasons anyway — by overachieving both their expected goals for and against, though not by a super exorbitant margin in either category.
It suggests a team under Gary O'Neil that excels at making the key plays in both boxes. And perhaps the decisive moments in last weekend's victory over Tottenham Hotspur were an example of that, in a game decided by the unlikely brace from Joao Gomes, who only had one previous goal in any top-flight competition.
The 23-year-old's first was a simple but strong header from a set piece. But his second to earn all three points was an example of making the right plays in both boxes in quick succession to start and then finish a counterattack.
Gomes did very well to evade pressure from a Spurs attack and play the outlet ball that began the counter. And Pedro Neto chose the exact right pass from the right flank, dragging a cross back toward the penalty area to meet Gomes' late run.
The win was Wolves' third over a top-five opponent this season and fifth over a big-six foe if you include an inconsistent Chelsea in that latter designation. And it extended their away unbeaten run to four matches after earlier struggles on their travels.
If there's any criticism of O'Neil's squad, it's that they haven't performed better against the bottom half of the table. You might expect more than a 4-4-2 league record (W-L-D) against those clubs when you've also posted a 6-6-3 mark against the 10 top-half sides. But a partial explanation is probably that seven of those 10 fixtures against the bottom half have come away from home.
Sheffield United
The Blades should be lauded for making a couple of winter moves to try and fix their most pressing issues and mount a survival bid, but the football gods haven't been kind to those additions.
Villareal loanee Ben Brereton Diaz scored in his first and second PL starts, then had to miss the Blades' last two league outings with a hamstring injury. Everton loanee Holgate will be out for Sheffield United's next three matches serving the resulting suspension from his garish challenge on Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma.
Brereto Diaz is questionable to return Sunday, and given his productivity, if he's available it will be tempting for Chris Wilder not to immediately return him to the starting XI. But for as impotent in attack as the Blades had looked under previous boss Paul Heckingbottom, it's the defensive side of things that has plagued Wilder's short tenure, especially against the more polished sides
They've scored multiple goals on five occasions under Wilder, including four times when playing bottom-half opposition. All four of those games were within a goal of United taking a point, and they earned six total after playing to a +0.4 xG difference per 90 minutes in those four games. Without two own goals conceded to Luton in a 3-2 home defeat, it might've been nine points.
Cameron Archer still leads the side with four league goals, and scored in his most recent start, a 3-1 win at Luton two weekends ago. Archer was also an injury absence last week with a slight calf strain but appears to be probable for a return on Sunday.
Wolves vs Sheffield United
Prediction
Wilder's version of the Blades have proven themselves capable of giving as good as good as they get against bottom-half clubs.
Wolves are just barely in the bottom half on account of their inferior goal difference to Chelsea and will move above the Blues — who play their League Cup final on Saturday — with a point. But while they've punched above their weight at times, the results also show they are capable of being dragged back into the fray by those beneath them.
So as uncomfortable as it may feel, the play here is on Sheffield United in some form. The optimal move is probably to back them on a +1.5 goals handicap at -148 odds and an implied 59.7% probability. It's a wager that has yet to lose in Wilder's games managed against bottom-half teams, and has cashed in only two of Wolves' 12 fixtures so far against the teams beneath them.
