Favorites absolutely dominated the group stage of the 2019 Women's World Cup by winning 30 of 36 matches. Just three underdogs pulled off upsets and only three games ended in draws.
USA were the most dominant favorites and broke a Women's World Cup for goals in a group stage (18) and goal differential (18). They won their matches 13-0 vs. Thailand, 3-0 against Chile and 2-0 over Sweden.
The competition is set to get a lot tougher and a matchup with France in the quarterfinal is a strong possibility for USA.
Two African nations (Nigeria, Cameroon) qualified for the knockout stage for the first time ever while USA are making their eighth straight appearance.
USA vs. Spain (Monday, 12 p.m. ET on FS1)
- Odds to Advance: USA -600, Spain +400
- Moneylines: USA -250, Spain +715, Draw +345
- Over/Under: 2.5 (o-112)
USA have now qualified for the Round of 16 in all eight Women's World Cups and are on a quest for their fourth title. They've won eight straight matches in the tournament and are two away from the all-time record.
Spain won't be a walkover by any means but USA should progress and I'd be willing to bet them up to -275 on the moneyline.
Sweden vs. Canada (Monday, 3 p.m. ET on FS1)
- Odds to Advance: Canada -160, Sweden +130
- Moneylines: Canada +125, Sweden +240, Draw +210
- Over/Under: 2 (u-125)
Sweden and Canada both finished second in their groups with six points apiece but Canada has the clear edge in this head-to-head matchup at -160.
The low over/under of 2 goals indicates that the first goal will be critical, especially since there's been movement on the under. This matchup is similar to Australia-Norway and I think underdog Sweden may have the value now at +130 odds.
Italy vs. China (Tuesday, 12 p.m. ET on FS1)
- Odds to Advance: Italy -285, China +225
- Moneylines: Italy -125, China +280, Draw +240
- Over/Under: 2 (u-115)
Italy are the surprise team of the tournament as they won Group C as +1200 underdogs and also pulled off the biggest single-game upset as +400 'dogs against Australia. They now find themselves as the team to beat as heavy -285 favorites against China.
Surely there will be public action on Italy but I'd project some sharper movement on China over the weekend, if not sooner.
Netherlands vs. Japan (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET on FS1)
- Odds to Advance: Netherlands -250, Japan +200
- Moneylines: Netherlands -125, Japan +260, Draw +245
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-130)
Netherlands were my other pick to win it (with USA) and I like their path to the final with Japan up next and Italy/China in the quarterfinal. They went undefeated in the group stage and there's still plenty of room for improvement.
Japan, on the other hand, don't look like the same cohesive side that made the last two World Cup finals and they'll be chasing the ball often against Netherlands. I'm willing to bet the Dutch up to -140 and think this line will only go up.
Germany vs. Nigeria (Saturday, 11:30 a.m. ET on FS1)
- Odds to Advance: Germany -2000, Nigeria +1000
- Moneylines: Germany -560, Nigeria +1400, Draw +625
- Over/Under: 3.5 (u-130)
Germany are the second-biggest favorites in the knockout round after winning their group for a record seventh consecutive World Cup. They didn't concede a goal in wins over China (1-0), Spain (1-0) and South Korea (4-0).
Nigeria lost to both France (1-0) and Norway (3-0) but beat South Korea, 2-0, to finish third place in Group A. A valiant effort against France should give them some confidence despite the tall task ahead as +1000 underdogs vs. Germany.
Norway vs. Australia (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET on FOX)
- Odds to Advance: Australia -160, Norway +130
- Moneylines: Australia +105, Norway +215, Draw +235
- Over/Under: 2.5 (o-135)
Both clubs finished second in their respective groups with Norway losing to France, 2-1, and Australia getting upset by Italy, 2-1.
Oddsmakers initially gave Australia the slight edge to advance at -125 odds, but that was quickly bet up to -160. The Aussies were a trendy pick before the tournament but it's clear now that sharp bettors are also swooping in at generous prices.
While I do think that Australia should have the edge here, I'm now thinking about Norway to advance at the current odds of +130.
England vs. Cameroon (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET on FS1)
- Odds to Advance: England -3300, Cameroon +1500
- Moneylines: England -775, Cameroon +2100, Draw +850
- Over/Under: 3 (o-140)
England have looked strong in their three group victories but they now face a Cameroon team that's beaming with confidence after a last-second win to get here.
This match will likely be lopsided in terms of shots and possession and Cameroon will need another miracle to have any chance. I'm expecting England to start finding their goal-scoring form and would consider taking them on the -2 spread.
France vs. Brazil (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on FOX)
- Odds to Advance: France -550, Brazil +375
- Moneylines: France -300, Brazil +780, Draw +395
- Over/Under: 3 (u-140)
Host nation France didn't get any favors in the bracket as they face Brazil in the Round of 16 and potentially USA in the quarterfinal.
However, this isn't Brazil's strongest team they've ever had despite earning two shutout wins in the group stage (3-0 vs. Jamaica, 1-0 vs. Italy). They also led Australia, 2-0, before collapsing and losing 3-2.
France have nearly an 85% probability of advancing but they won't take Brazil lightly, so I'd be looking at the France spread of -1.5.
