The World Cup is just 50 days away, and that means it's time to start thinking about the bets to make.
As it stands, World Cup odds list Brazil (+400) as the favorite to win the tournament with France (+600), Argentina (+600), England (+700) and Spain (+800) rounding out the single-digit choices on the futures board at BetMGM.
I'll be sharing my favorite underdog selections to win their specific groups come the end of the group stage, and at the end I'll offer my best outright selection to make right now.
Without further delay, let’s get right to the picks.
Odds are updated as of September 30.
Denmark to Win Group D (+275)
Some might question the fade of France in this spot, but I’m obsessed with the pricing on Denmark.
Les Bleus are currently facing a sizable injury crisis as well as rumors of discontent in the dressing room between Kylian Mbappe and Paul Pogba. Plus, it’s looking increasingly likely that France will lose Pogba for the World Cup, leaving them vulnerable in the midfield in addition to their normal weakness at full-back.
That should give Denmark’s potent attack, which generated the third-most expected goals (xG) at the 2020 Euros, a great chance to break through and steal this group. Plus, let’s not forget Denmark just beat France 2-0 in a Nations League match while limiting an offense that saw Mbappe, Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann combine for only a single big scoring chance, per fotmob.com.
Additionally, in its last four Nations League matches, Denmark is 2-2-0 (W-L-D) but won three of four on big scoring chances and created 2.25 big scoring chances per 90 minutes. The second victory in that set came against France in Paris, where Denmark won the big scoring chances battle 4-3.
With France in disarray and dealing with the World Cup winners group curse, I’ll back the Danes at +200 or better to win this group.
Uruguay to Win Group H (+200)
Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal is the favorite to win this group, but Uruguay has proven an under-the-radar side.
There’s a good dynamic at the striker position with the (aging) Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani along with an up-and-coming Darwin Nunez to complement.
But, perhaps the most impressive element of this squad is its defense, which surrendered only 3.1 xG at the Copa America, including only 1.1 xG against Argentina.
Given the strength of their defense comes through the middle of the park – Jose Maria Gimenez & Diego Godin at center-half, Lucas Torreira and Rodrigo Betancur in defensive midfield – that could present problems to Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes in a head-to-head matchup.
Plus, Portugal doesn’t possess a brilliant record when it comes to finishing atop its group. In 2018, it finished second to Spain four years after finishing third to Germany and the United States. In fact, not since 2006 has Portugal won its group.
Meanwhile, although it has earned better draw luck, Uruguay has won its group two of its last three times out.
For those reasons, I’ll take a shot with the underdogs so long as you can get it at +200 or better.
Netherlands to Reach the Final (+550) and Outright (+1400)
In an ideal world, the Netherlands will finish second in Group A to move opposite Brazil on the draw, but I still think you’re getting good prices here.
If the Netherlands wins their group, they’ll end up in a quarter with one of the USA or Wales, Argentina and either Denmark or France. If they finish second, they’ll end up with England, one of France/Denmark and one of Mexico/Poland. In either scenario, I still think they will reach the semi final.
From there, they’ll ultimately get Brazil (yikes) or one of Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal or Uruguay (not so yikes). For me, the Netherlands will be shorter than +550 to advance against Brazil, so you’re still getting a good price. But, I make them a favorite in the latter group against every team except Spain, giving this great value.
Even setting all the draw calculus aside, there’s a lot to like about this team team. Just in their last six Nations League matches, they’re 5-0-1 (W-L-D) and have generated 15 big scoring chances. Plus, even though the level of opposition wasn’t the greatest, the Netherlands finished the 2020 Euros with the best xG differential per 90 minutes.
So, at +1400, I’m willing to take a shot at chaos and bet on the Netherlands to become World Cup Champions, especially when you add in there are at least four teams ahead on the futures board I rate below this squad.
