With the opening round of matches coming to an end, there is still plenty of betting action remaining in the group stage of the 2023 Women’s World Cup on Monday and Tuesday.
I start with my favorite prop from Group F in the game between Brazil and Panama, where I expect the Brazilians to jump out quickly.
My next play involves the first two countries to play their second fixture of the competition between New Zealand and the Philippines, which I expect the hosts to pick up another result.
These two matches present the best prop value over these two days. So, let’s dive into the games and try to cash some winning tickets.
World Cup Picks – Brazil vs Panama & New Zealand vs Philippines
Brazil vs Panama – Brazil First Half Over 2.5 (+185 via DraftKings)
In my first prop, Brazil come into their opening match as one of the biggest favorites of any game, entering the fixture at -4 on the spread.
Whenever we have seen these lopsided games in major competitions, the team that posts the dominant victory usually gets off to a quick start.
If you look back at the results from the last two World Cups and Summer Olympics, a country that has earned a victory by at least four goals has scored three or more in the first half of those matches on 10-of-16 occasions.
This is how I’m expecting the Brazilians to kick off the tournament, especially behind the veteran leadership of Marta and with France up next.
Brazil are the same side that won every game of the first round of the 2022 Copa América Femenina by an average of 4.25 goals against similar opposition to Panama.
Meanwhile, Las Canaleras come into the competition after a 7-0 defeat to Spain and a 5-0 loss to Japan, and they held the longest odds to win the World Cup coming into the tournament at +50000.
New Zealand vs Philippines – 0.5u New Zealand to Win by Exactly 1 Goal (+260) | 0.5u New Zealand to Win by Exactly 2 Goals (+260 via BetMGM)
The shock of the tournament so far was provided by New Zealand after the hosts took down Norway in the opening match as heavy underdogs. However, their roles now reverse against a side that lost its first game to Switzerland.
You can’t call the victory a fluke as the Football Ferns posted 1.7 xG and a +0.5 xGDiff against the Group A favorite.
I’m not ready to fully join the hype train after one result, but I do think there’s a better way of backing the host nation instead of playing the -550 odds on the moneyline at BetMGM.
I suggest splitting your bet into two wagers, placing one on New Zealand to win by exactly one goal and the other on the Football Ferns to win by exactly two goals. Both props are the same odds at +260.
You have to expect a response from the Philippines after allowing 3.1 xG and losing the xG battle by 3. Plus, New Zealand typically do not blow out opponents in wins.
In their last five victories, this has been a winning ticket in all five, including a 2-1 triumph over the Philippines in September of last year.
I could see them setting up defensively after a goal as a draw isn’t the worst result, but I do think they push for a win that all but secures their place in the knockout rounds.
